Published: 19 hours ago

Atalanta BC vs AS Roma: Preview and Prediction

Atalanta BC will hope to finish in the top four when they take on AS Roma at the Gewiss Stadium on Monday night.

Two sides vying for a top-four finish in Serie A go head-to-head at the Gewiss Stadium on Monday evening, as Atalanta BC play host to a resurgent AS Roma in what promises to be a crucial encounter in the battle for UEFA Champions League qualification.

After enduring a rollercoaster campaign, Atalanta BC have managed to steady the ship, currently sitting in third place, just behind title-chasing Napoli and Inter Milan. The Bergamaschi took a major step towards securing their top-four status with a commanding 4-0 victory over Monza last weekend, a performance that saw the struggling Charles De Ketelaere finally end his goal drought, while Ademola Lookman also found the net in what could be his final home appearance before a potential summer exit.

Despite their emphatic win, Atalanta have been inconsistent on home turf, collecting just eight points from their last nine league games in Bergamo, including underwhelming results against Cagliari and Venezia. However, with a four-point cushion over Juventus and three games to go, La Dea’s destiny remains firmly in their own hands.

Under Gian Piero Gasperini, Atalanta have become one of Italy’s most prolific attacking sides, having scored 99 goals across all competitions this season. A single strike against Roma will see them hit the 100-goal mark for the fifth time in six years, further underscoring their offensive prowess under the veteran coach. However, with Gasperini hinting at a possible departure in the summer, the clash against Roma could serve as a farewell to a golden era for the Bergamo-based club.

For AS Roma, the second half of the season has been nothing short of sensational. Since the appointment of Claudio Ranieri as interim boss, the Giallorossi have surged up the standings, going unbeaten in their last 16 league games, winning 12 of those encounters. The latest victory came against Fiorentina, where top scorer Artem Dovbyk netted the opener before goalkeeper Mile Svilar produced a standout performance, making several vital saves to secure a 1-0 win.

Svilar’s contributions have been pivotal in Roma’s defensive resurgence, as the Serbian shot-stopper boasts a 77.5% save rate and has kept 15 clean sheets in Serie A this term. His tally is the highest recorded by a Giallorossi keeper since Alisson Becker’s 17 shutouts in the 2017/18 season.

Roma’s defence, marshalled by the experienced Ranieri, has conceded the fewest goals (eight) in Serie A since the turn of the year, with the Giallorossi also picking up the most points in 2025 (43 points from 16 matches). Notably, they have developed a reputation for grinding out results, recording a league-high nine 1-0 victories this season, eight of which have come under Ranieri’s tenure.

However, despite their resurgence, Roma have struggled on the road against Atalanta, losing four of their last five away league games in Bergamo, including a 2-0 defeat in December’s reverse fixture. Yet, with momentum on their side and Ranieri keen to end his third and final spell at Roma on a high, the visitors will be confident of breaking that trend and keeping their Champions League dream alive. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.

Team News & Tactics

Atalanta BC

Atalanta are dealing with several injury concerns ahead of their crucial clash with AS Roma, with Ademola Lookman listed as doubtful due to an inflamed Achilles tendon. The Nigerian winger is expected to undergo a late fitness test to determine his availability for what could potentially be his penultimate home game in an Atalanta shirt.

Meanwhile, Austrian defender Stefan Posch is also facing a race against time as he battles a thigh injury, while several long-term absentees remain sidelined. These include Gianluca Scamacca, Juan Cuadrado, Sead Kolasinac, and Giorgio Scalvini, all of whom will not return until next season.

Additionally, Isak Hien is suspended, leaving a void in defence. As a result, head coach Gian Piero Gasperini may be forced to shift captain Marten de Roon into a makeshift centre-back role to provide cover at the back.

In attack, Mateo Retegui is set to start up front as he looks to cap off a remarkable season. The Italian striker is currently the leading candidate for the Capocannoniere award, having netted 24 Serie A goals this term. With just one more goal, he will surpass Pippo Inzaghi’s 1996-97 club record of 24 league goals in a single campaign.

Atalanta are expected to deploy a 3-4-2-1 formation, with a focus on defensive solidity and quick transitions in attack. In goal, Marco Carnesecchi will retain his position as the first-choice goalkeeper, providing a calming presence behind a reshuffled backline. The three-man defence will consist of Odilon Kossounou on the right, Berat Djimsiti centrally, and Marten de Roon operating as a makeshift centre-back on the left.

The wing-back positions will be occupied by Raoul Bellanova on the right and Davide Zappacosta on the left, both of whom will be tasked with providing width and delivering crosses into the box.

In central midfield, Ederson and Mario Pasalic will form a dynamic partnership, combining Ederson’s ball-winning ability with Pasalic’s attacking instincts. In the advanced midfield roles, Charles De Ketelaere and Marco Brescianini will operate as dual playmakers, looking to link up with the lone striker and exploit any gaps in Roma’s defensive setup.

Leading the line will be Mateo Retegui, whose goalscoring form and aerial presence will be crucial in breaking down a Roma defence that has kept 15 clean sheets this season.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi; Kossounou, Djimsiti, De Roon; Bellanova, Ederson, Pasalic, Zappacosta; De Ketelaere, Brescianini; Retegui

AS Roma

AS Roma have been dealt another blow in their top-four push, with captain Lorenzo Pellegrini ruled out for the remainder of the season due to a muscular injury. The influential playmaker joins star forward Paulo Dybala on the sidelines, as the Argentine was also ruled out for the rest of the campaign with a recurring muscle issue.

In attack, head coach Claudio Ranieri has frequently paired Eldor Shomurodov with top scorer Artem Dovbyk, and that partnership is expected to continue against Atalanta. Dovbyk, who netted the winner against Fiorentina last time out, remains Roma’s primary attacking threat.

With Pellegrini unavailable, the creative responsibilities could fall on the shoulders of Nicolo Pisilli, though Matias Soule may also shift inside to occupy the playmaking role, allowing Alexis Saelemaekers to return to the starting XI on the right flank.

Roma will line up in a 3-4-1-2 formation, aiming to maintain their defensive solidity while providing support for the front two. In goal, Mile Svilar will continue as the first-choice goalkeeper, having kept 15 clean sheets in Serie A this season. The three-man defence will comprise Zeki Celik on the right, Gianluca Mancini centrally, and Evan Ndicka on the left, forming a compact and disciplined backline.

The wing-back spots will be occupied by Matias Soule on the right and Angelino on the left. Both players will be tasked with providing width and delivering crosses into the box, while also tracking back to support the defensive unit.

In the centre of midfield, Bryan Cristante will anchor the side, partnering with Manu Kone, whose physical presence will be crucial in disrupting Atalanta’s rhythm and protecting the backline. In the advanced midfield role, Niccolo Pisilli is expected to operate as the primary playmaker, tasked with linking midfield and attack and providing service to the forwards.

Leading the line will be Eldor Shomurodov and Artem Dovbyk, with Dovbyk looking to add to his goal tally and Shomurodov providing a more physical presence and aerial threat in the final third.

Probable Lineup (3-4-1-2): Svilar; Celik, Mancini, Ndicka; Soule, Cristante, Kone, Angelino; Pisilli; Shomurodov, Dovbyk

Key Stats

  • Atalanta have collected 13 points (W4 D1) from their last five Serie A games against Roma, a dominant run that highlights their recent superiority in this fixture. During the same period, only against Hellas Verona (16 points), Empoli (18), and Monza (18) have Atalanta accrued more points in the league.
  • The Bergamaschi kept a clean sheet in the reverse fixture against Roma, securing a 2-0 victory in December. If they manage to record another shutout on Monday, it will be the first time they have kept consecutive clean sheets against the Giallorossi in the same Serie A season since the 1964/65 campaign under Ferruccio Valcareggi.
  • Roma have lost four of their last five away games (W1) against Atalanta in Serie A, a stark contrast to their previous 13 visits to Bergamo, where they suffered only four defeats (W6 D3).
  • Despite their top-four status, Atalanta have collected only eight points from nine home league games in 2025, averaging just 0.9 points per game. They have recorded one win, five draws, and three losses at the Gewiss Stadium this year, their worst home record since 2013, when they collected just seven points from nine home matches.
  • Under Claudio Ranieri, Roma have become specialists in grinding out 1-0 victories, winning by that scoreline nine times this season across all competitions, the most by any club in Europe’s top five leagues. Remarkably, eight of those nine 1-0 wins have come under Ranieri’s tenure, but the Giallorossi have never recorded four consecutive 1-0 victories in Serie A.

Player to Watch

Mateo Retegui

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All eyes will be on Mateo Retegui as Atalanta BC continue their push for a top-four finish in Serie A against a resurgent AS Roma. The Italy international has been in phenomenal form this season, leading the league’s scoring charts with 24 goals, and he stands just one strike away from surpassing Pippo Inzaghi’s 1996-97 club record of 24 goals in a single Serie A campaign.

Retegui’s emergence as a prolific goal scorer has been a key factor in Atalanta’s offensive success, with the forward accounting for nearly a quarter of the team’s total goals this season. His physical presence, aerial dominance, and clinical finishing have made him a nightmare for defenders, particularly in matches where Atalanta are forced to break down deep-lying defences.

Against Roma, Retegui’s role becomes even more critical given Ademola Lookman’s doubtful status due to an inflamed Achilles tendon. If Lookman is ruled out, Retegui will shoulder even greater responsibility as Atalanta’s primary attacking outlet.

The 24-year-old will also be keen to make amends for his underwhelming performance in the reverse fixture, where he was kept largely in check by Roma’s defence in a 2-0 win for Atalanta back in December. With Marten de Roon likely dropping into defence due to suspensions and injuries, Retegui’s ability to hold up play and link with the attacking midfielders will be vital in creating scoring opportunities.

Furthermore, with Roma’s defence conceding the fewest goals (eight) in Serie A since the turn of the year, Retegui’s clinical edge will be put to the test against a compact and well-organised backline that has kept 15 clean sheets this season.

If Atalanta are to maintain their grip on a top-four spot and keep AS Roma at bay, Mateo Retegui will need to be at his ruthless best, using his strength, movement, and poaching instincts to deliver when it matters most.

Prediction

Atalanta BC 1-1 AS Roma

While Atalanta’s firepower and home advantage make them slight favourites, AS Roma’s resolute defence and red-hot form could see them frustrate the hosts and extend their unbeaten run. Expect a cagey, hard-fought contest with both sides determined to keep their top-four hopes intact.

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