The Netherlands begin their journey toward the 2026 FIFA World Cup with a high-stakes Group G encounter against Finland on Saturday night at the Helsinki Olympic Stadium. While the Dutch may be the overwhelming favourites on paper, a combination of patchy form, recent heartbreak, and a determined Finnish side under new leadership ensures this fixture won’t be taken lightly.
For Ronald Koeman’s side, the road to North America starts a little later than expected. Their involvement in a thrilling but ultimately fruitless UEFA Nations League quarter-final against Spain delayed their World Cup qualifying campaign. Despite scoring four goals across two legs, the Netherlands were ousted via penalties after a pulsating 5-5 aggregate draw, a result that left more questions than answers.
That setback compounded what has been a frustrating run for Koeman, who has overseen just two wins in his last nine games as head coach (D4 L3). Both victories, high-scoring triumphs over Bosnia-Herzegovina (5-2) and Hungary (4-0), came at home, and away form remains a lingering concern. With the rest of the group having played twice already, the Oranje find themselves six points behind leaders Poland, and the pressure to start strong is undeniable.
Historically, the Netherlands have failed to reach the World Cup on all eight occasions where they’ve won less than 60% of their qualifying matches. It’s a stark reminder that even in a favourable group, consistency is non-negotiable. And while they boast a top-10 FIFA ranking, Koeman’s side will be wary of a potential banana skin in Helsinki.
For Finland, the stakes are clear: continue their unbeaten start and dare to dream. After enduring a dismal 2024 marked by eight winless outings and a last-place Nations League finish in League B, the Finnish Football Federation made a bold change. In came Jacob Friis, and early signs point to a rejuvenated squad with belief restored.
The new era began with a narrow but vital 1-0 away win against Malta, courtesy of Oliver Antman, followed by a frustrating 2-2 draw with Lithuania, where a two-goal cushion evaporated. Still, four points from two games is a solid platform, and Finland find themselves second in the group, three points ahead of three rivals, including Saturday’s visitors.
However, the home side’s biggest challenge lies in their own backyard. Finland have lost each of their last three home matches, conceding at least two goals in all of them. Even more concerning, they’ve managed just one win in their last five home qualifiers (D2 L2). To overcome a side of the Netherlands’ calibre, Friis will need both tactical discipline and mental resilience from his squad.
The head-to-head record offers little comfort for the hosts. The Netherlands have won each of their last four competitive meetings with Finland, outscoring them 11-2 across those games. The last time they met in a World Cup qualifier, the Oranje came away 2-0 victors, and that pattern of dominance will be something Koeman’s men look to continue.
Yet this is a different Dutch side, one still searching for identity and fluidity. With Poland already six points clear, there’s no room for a misstep. Meanwhile, Finland, chasing a first-ever World Cup berth, know they’ll need to take points in games exactly like this if they are to mount a genuine qualification bid. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Finland’s preparations for their clash against the Netherlands have been dealt a minor blow with the withdrawal of Roman Eremenko, who was poised to make a sensational return to international football after nine years. The 38-year-old midfielder, recalled on the back of impressive performances for Gnistan, has been ruled out due to injury and will play no part in the fixture.
On a positive note, Finland will be able to count on several seasoned internationals. Captain and Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky is expected to start between the sticks and will mark a historic milestone by earning his 100th cap, becoming only the sixth player in Finnish history to reach that mark. In attack, proven goal threats Teemu Pukki, Joel Pohjanpalo, and Robin Lod have all been included and will play key roles in shaping the outcome of this Group G showdown.
The squad also features exciting new faces, with Matias Siltanen of Djurgardens IF and Tommi Jyry of Petrolul Ploiesti receiving their first senior call-ups. While their presence adds depth and promise for the future, neither midfielder is expected to start on Saturday, although they could be introduced from the bench depending on how the game unfolds.
Head coach Jacob Friis is likely to stick with a balanced 4-3-3 formation, with Lukas Hradecky in goal. He will be backed by a defensive line of Nikolai Alho at right-back, Robert Ivanov and Miro Tenho in the heart of the defence, and Jere Uronen on the left.
In midfield, Glen Kamara, Kaan Kairinen, and Robin Lod will form a compact trio, offering a mix of composure, ball progression, and work rate. Lod is likely to be the most advanced of the three, functioning almost as a link between midfield and attack.
The front three should feature Oliver Antman on the right wing, Joel Pohjanpalo leading the line as the central striker, and Benjamin Kallman operating from the left. The wide forwards will be crucial in stretching the Dutch defence and providing service to Pohjanpalo, who remains Finland’s most clinical forward.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Hradecky; Alho, Tenho, Ivanov, Uronen; Kamara, Kairinen, Lod; Antman, Pohjanpalo, Kallman
The Netherlands head into their opening World Cup 2026 qualifier with a somewhat depleted squad, as a number of regular names miss out due to injury or fitness issues. Goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen, defenders Jurrien Timber and Matthijs de Ligt, and striker Brian Brobbey are all sidelined and unavailable for selection.
Midfielders Jerdy Schouten, Kenneth Taylor, Joey Veerman, and forward Joshua Zirkzee have also been left out of the 23-man squad, either due to form, fatigue, or minor knocks. Despite these absentees, head coach Ronald Koeman has received a welcome boost with the return of Nathan Ake, who is back in full training following foot surgery.
The Manchester City defender is expected to compete with promising Ajax teenager Jorrel Hato for a place on the left side of the backline. On the opposite flank, the right-back slot is hotly contested, with Denzel Dumfries, Lutsharel Geertruida, and new Liverpool acquisition Jeremie Frimpong all in contention to start.
In midfield, Frenkie de Jong is likely to be deployed in his customary deep-lying playmaker role, with Tijjani Reijnders, who is set to join Manchester City, partnering him to offer both control and progression in the middle of the park. Ahead of them, Xavi Simons will serve as the central creative hub, orchestrating attacking moves in the No. 10 position.
The attacking trio is expected to feature Justin Kluivert on the right and Cody Gakpo on the left, both of whom bring directness and pace to Koeman’s frontline. Up front, the Dutch boss has confirmed that the lone striker role will be handed to either Memphis Depay or Wout Weghorst. Given his recent physical form and impact off the bench, Weghorst is tipped to get the nod in Helsinki.
Koeman is expected to set up in a fluid 4-2-3-1 formation. Mark Flekken will start in goal. The defensive line should include Denzel Dumfries at right-back, Jan Paul van Hecke and captain Virgil van Dijk at centre-back, with Nathan Aké likely to start at left-back. Frenkie de Jong and Tijjani Reijnders will occupy the double pivot in midfield, providing both defensive coverage and forward distribution. Justin Kluivert will operate from the right wing, Cody Gakpo from the left, while Xavi Simons assumes the central attacking midfield role. Wout Weghorst is expected to lead the line as the lone striker.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Flekken; Dumfries, van Hecke, van Dijk, Ake; de Jong, Reijnders; Kluivert, Simons, Gakpo; Weghorst
The Liverpool forward is coming off a steady club season in which he registered 10 goals in 35 Premier League appearances, showcasing his adaptability and threat whether playing through the middle or from the left. But it is with the national team where Gakpo truly shines in big moments. He was one of the standout performers at Euro 2024, scoring three goals and finishing as a joint top scorer, underlining his knack for delivering when it matters most.
In this clash against a defensively vulnerable Finnish side, one that has conceded at least two goals in each of their last three home matches, Gakpo’s sharp movement, cutting runs from the wing, and lethal left foot could be the difference. Whether creating space for others or taking defenders on directly, he has the tools to unpick Jacob Friis’s backline.
With Memphis Depay absent and Wout Weghorst likely to lead the line, Gakpo’s role becomes that of the chief creator and secondary scorer. His partnership with Xavi Simons and Justin Kluivert could give the Netherlands a dynamic edge in attack. If the Oranje are to start their qualifying campaign with three points, expect Cody Gakpo to be at the heart of it.
Finland may put up a spirited fight, but the Netherlands’ firepower and urgency to start strong should see them through. Expect a cagey start but a controlled finish from the visitors. The Hard Tackle predicts a hard-fought 2-1 win for Ronald Koeman and his charges.
