Though we’re still in the early stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying, four-time world champions Italy already have no margin for error. Monday’s home clash against continental minnows Moldova is a textbook definition of a must-win affair for Gli Azzurri.
Head coach Luciano Spalletti couldn’t have hoped for a worse way to kick things off in Group I as Norway trounced his out-of-sorts side 3-0 in Oslo a few days ago. With only the winners of this section qualifying automatically for next summer’s tournament, Italy cannot afford another slip-up.
Sassuolo’s Mapei Stadium should form a perfect backdrop for the Italians’ return to the win column for the first time since November. Indeed, they have won their last two World Cup qualifiers in Emilia-Romagna without conceding. Furthermore, they’re up against a side they’ve defeated in all five previous meetings.
Moldova’s pursuit of a first-ever World Cup qualification as an independent country has been off to a humiliating start, as expected. Serghei Cleșcenco’s charges kicked off proceedings in Group I with a disastrous 5-0 home defeat to Norway before slumping to a 3-2 defeat to Estonia after falling a man down in the fifth minute.
Nailed to the bottom of the standings, Moldova cannot realistically hope to post their first win in World Cup qualifying since October 2013. However, they may still give Italy a run for their money, even though a 2-0 friendly loss to Poland on Friday suggests otherwise.
Italy
Friday’s fiasco in Scandinavia extended Italy’s winless streak to four matches (D2, L2), heightening the pressure on Spalletti. Anything other than a landslide victory against Moldova would be a disaster for the former Scudetto winner, but the omens look promising for the hosts.
They have won all five meetings with the Tricolours since their first encounter in 1996, scoring an average of three goals per game. That’s largely thanks to a 6-0 rout in their most recent clash in October 2020, though that fixture had a friendly character.
However, it’s still encouraging, especially considering Italy’s last two defeats came at home, albeit standing on the opposite side were teams from FIFA’s top ten. North Macedonia don’t fall into this category, yet they inflicted Italy’s last home defeat in World Cup qualifying, beating Gli Azzurri in a 2022 one-off playoff tie.
Despite all the struggles, the Italians have been fun to watch. Eight of their last nine games have featured 3+ goals, highlighting the potential for an enthralling contest. Nothing less will do for Spalletti after FIGC President Gabriele Gravina deemed Italy’s calamitous performance at the Ullevaal Stadium ‘unacceptable’ via Eurosport.
Moldova
Unless the visitors can defy their well-documented defensive woes, fans in attendance should be in for a treat. The Moldovans have conceded ten goals in three internationals this calendar year, capitulating multiple times in each fixture. That’s ominously been the case in four of their five previous matches against Italy.
Therefore, their hopes of halting a dismal 22-game winless streak in World Cup qualifying look far-fetched (D3, L19). Adding to this sentiment, the Tricolours have fared disastrously in foreign lands, picking up just one win on their last seven road trips (D2, L4). Moreover, three of those four losses saw them fail to get on the scoresheet.
Scoring in opposition territory has been a genuine problem for Moldova. They last netted more than one goal in an away game in October 2022 against fellow strugglers Latvia. Worryingly, they’ve since gone 11 consecutive away fixtures without scoring twice, casting further doubt on their effort to upset the odds in Emilia-Romagna.
Fiorentina striker Moise Kean and Juventus midfielder Manuel Locatelli were the latest Italy stars to pull out of the squad. Alessandro Buongiorno, Riccardo Calafiori, and Matteo Gabbia had withdrawn even before Italy’s clash against Norway, leaving Spalletti with limited defensive options.
On the other hand, Torino teenager Sergiu Perciun could make his official debut for the senior squad after coming on as a substitute in Moldova’s loss in Poland. But all eyes will be on the country’s all-time leading goalscorer, Ion Nicolaescu, who’s vying for his 18th international goal.
Italy (3-5-1-1): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Ranieri, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Ricci, Tonali, Udogie; Raspadori, Retegui.
Moldova (5-4-1): Avram; Platica, Posmac, Baboglo, Mudrac, Reabciuk; Caicamov, Motpan, Rata, Ionita; Nicolaescu.
Despite Italy’s lackluster form, this should be a walk in the park for the Euro 2020 winners. Spalletti’s side may seek a statement win to bolster their confidence after a dire Group I start. Given Moldova’s notorious defensive leaks, this could be a turning point for Gli Azzurri.
Prediction: Italy to Win
