Italy’s qualification seemed doomed at the start when they lost out to Norway in the opening game of Group I with a 3-0 scoreline. The result ended Luciano Spalletti’s reign as the national team boss, but Gennaro Gattuso’s arrival then saw the Azzurri in fluid goalscoring form.
The former World Cup winner has found balance and rhythm in this squad, which has led to guarantees of a top-two finish. Italy did have a few scares in their seven matches so far, most notably from Israel, but they have managed to maneuver the obstacles so far, including their most recent one against Moldova. The qualification process is still incomplete as Italy are likely to take the play-offs route to make the cut.
Italy went away to play the European minnows and struggled to break them down, as the Moldovans put in a defensively resilient performance. Gianluca Mancini’s 88th-minute header broke the deadlock, and then Francesco Pio Esposito added gloss to the result with a second a few minutes later. The victory does mean Italy are three points behind Norway before they play, but it would take a massive performance to topple their tormentors from Matchday 1.
Meanwhile, Stale Solbakken’s side are more or less guaranteed to finish the qualification campaign as winners of Group I. Norway come into this clash with a 100% record in their qualification group, as the manager will want to keep that run going into the final game set to be played at the San Siro.
Norway had already guaranteed themselves a top place finish following yet another win in their group, with the latest being against Estonia. A brace each from Alexander Sorloth and Erling Haaland sealed the points, as Solbakken will want to end this tremendous campaign on a high.
Moreover, their massive goal difference of 17 goals over second-placed Italy will mean that the Azzurri will need a miraculous performance of a nine-goal victory at San Siro to topple Norway from their top place. So, a one-two finish to Group I is more or less guaranteed at this moment, and this game is probably a mere formality of sorts.
With a place in the World Cup yet to be cemented, Gennaro Gattuso will know the need to keep his players away from any potential suspensions for the possible play-offs in the next international break. Hence, the Italian manager could keep Sandro Tonali out of the equation to not risk a possible suspension of any sort later.
Meanwhile, Nicolo Barella is widely expected to replace Tonali in the lineup, having served a suspension against Moldova. Gattuso is likely to bring back some of his key stars, which could see Mateo Retegui and Gianluigi Donnarumma return to the lineup.
There will be spots for Bryan Cristante and Manuel Locatelli in the Italian midfield, while Matteo Politano and Giacomo Raspadori will feature in the frontline alongside Retegui. Gattuso will go along with a strong backline, which will miss key man Riccardo Calafiori, who is nursing a minor hip problem.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Barella, Locatelli, Cristante; Politano, Retegui, Raspadori
Stale Solbakken realistically does not need to play his strongest eleven for this trip to San Siro, but he might name one anyway to ensure his Norway side finishes with a 100% record. They are still without skipper Marti Odegaard with a knee problem, but the Arsenal man was present in the stands as a show of support.
Meanwhile, Solbakken will continue with a 4-4-2 shape, with Patrick Berg and Sander Berge set to take their places in the Norwegian midfield. Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb will feature in the wide areas in support of the two central strikers.
Erling Haaland has been a solid presence for Norway, with 14 goals in their qualification campaign, only two behind Robert Lewandowski’s all-time record of 16. The Manchester City star will pair up with Alexander Sorloth in a front two.
Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Nyland; Ryerson, Heggem, Ajer, Bjorkan; Bobb, Berg, Berge, Nusa; Sorloth, Haaland
The Manchester City striker has been in a formidable vein of form this season, scoring in all but one game for club and country. In a sequence of 16 games, Haaland has scored 28 goals, which is formidable in many regards, including 14 in the qualifiers alone.
However, Haaland is still two goals short of Lewandowski’s 16-goal haul in qualifiers, which will be on his mind ahead of the eighth and final qualifier. Hence, the Manchester City star is expected to start for Norway, and all eyes will be on him to either match or break the Polish great’s record.
Norway have qualified for the World Cup for the first time in 28 years, and Stale Solbakken is in the right mood to not suffer a defeat in the final qualifier. He will look to maintain the 100% record in Group I so far, but this challenge to topple the Italians will prove difficult at this time of asking.
Italy may have suffered a big defeat away at Norway in the earlier stages of the qualification rounds, but they are a better side since then. Gennaro Gattuso has made this Italian side stronger, and they are in a better position to put up a fight, and this game has all the hallmarks of an entertaining draw.
