Sunday afternoon at St Andrew’s arrives with very different emotions on either side of the divide. Birmingham City, once tipped as genuine promotion contenders, are now fighting to arrest a worrying slide, while Coventry City travel across the Midlands still leading the Championship despite a rare dip in form.
For Birmingham, the festive period has been nothing short of bruising. A combination of injuries, suspensions, and flat performances has left Chris Davies’s side winless in seven league matches, a run that has severely dented their hopes of mounting a serious Premier League push. The low point came on New Year’s Day, when Watford exposed familiar weaknesses in a 3-0 defeat, with Tom Ince’s hat-trick underlining just how vulnerable the Blues have looked away from home.
That loss marked Birmingham’s ninth away defeat of the season, but the damage extends beyond results alone. With just three points collected from their last seven Championship fixtures, they now find themselves drifting uncomfortably closer to the relegation picture than the playoff places.
Questions are beginning to surface around recruitment and squad balance, particularly given the underwhelming returns from high-profile signings Marvin Ducksch and Kyogo Furuhashi, who have managed just three league goals between them. Frustration is clearly simmering, and recent off-field incidents have only added to the sense of a club searching for cohesion.
Yet St Andrew’s remains a source of relative encouragement. Birmingham have lost just once in their last 12 home league matches, and that resilience on familiar ground could prove vital as they attempt to reset their campaign. Individually, there is talent within the squad; the challenge for Davies is finding a way to turn those pieces into a functioning collective once again.
Coventry City arrive with their own issues to iron out, though the broader picture remains positive. Frank Lampard’s side still sit atop the Championship table, holding a nine-point cushion over third-placed Middlesbrough. However, their grip on momentum has loosened slightly, with just one point taken from recent clashes against Ipswich Town and Charlton Athletic.
On New Year’s Day, it looked as though Coventry were heading for a routine away win at The Valley before a late equaliser denied them all three points. While Coventry boast the best away record in the Championship, their recent inability to turn dominance into victories offers a sliver of hope for the hosts.
Adding intrigue, Birmingham have won the last four meetings between the sides without conceding a goal, though Coventry were the last team to claim an away victory in this fixture back in April 2022. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
Birmingham City receive a timely boost ahead of Sunday’s fixture with the return of Tommy Doyle, who is available again after serving a three-match suspension following his straight red card. His reintroduction adds much-needed control and composure to a midfield that has struggled for balance during the Blues’ recent winless run.
However, defensive issues persist. Club captain Christoph Klarer remains suspended, meaning Birmingham are once again forced to rely on alternative centre-back options. At the back, Phil Neumann and Jack Robinson are expected to continue their partnership in central defence, tasked with maintaining structure against one of the Championship’s most effective attacking sides.
Further concern comes in attack, where Jay Stansfield, a surprise absentee in the defeat to Watford, has now been confirmed to be dealing with a leg injury. His availability remains in doubt, potentially depriving Birmingham of one of their more energetic forward options.
From a tactical perspective, Chris Davies is expected to set his side up in a 4-5-1 formation, emphasising midfield density and defensive compactness in an attempt to frustrate Coventry’s rhythm. James Beadle should continue in goal, shielded by a back four consisting of Tomoki Iwata at right-back, Phil Neumann and Jack Robinson as the central defensive pairing, and Eiran Cashin operating from left-back.
In midfield, Tommy Doyle is likely to slot straight back in, partnered by Paik Seung-ho and Willum Thor Willumsson, and to provide ball progression and positional discipline. Patrick Roberts and Keshi Anderson are expected to operate on the flanks, providing energy, width, and support in transition. Leading the line as the lone striker, Kyogo Furuhashi is set to shoulder the goalscoring responsibility, tasked with stretching Coventry’s backline and making the most of limited service.
Probable Lineup (4-5-1): Beadle; Iwata, Neumann, Robinson, Cashin; Roberts, Doyle, Paik, Willumsson, Anderson; Furuhashi
Coventry City head into the Midlands derby with a couple of important absences that slightly blunt their attacking depth. Brandon Thomas-Asante, one of the Sky Blues’ standout performers earlier in the campaign, remains sidelined as he continues his recovery from a hamstring injury.
His absence removes a powerful and direct option in the final third, particularly useful in transition. There is also concern in midfield, where Victor Torp, a regular starter throughout the 2025/26 season, missed the midweek trip to Charlton Athletic due to injury and is not expected to return in time for Sunday’s clash.
Despite those setbacks, Frank Lampard still has a well-settled core to rely upon, and Coventry’s overall structure is unlikely to change significantly. The visitors remain one of the most tactically consistent sides in the division, built on controlled possession, strong wing-back play, and physical presence in attack.
Coventry are expected to line up in a 3-5-2 formation, a system that has underpinned their rise to the top of the Championship table. Carl Rushworth is set to start in goal, protected by a back three comprising Joel Latibeaudiere on the right, Bobby Thomas in the central role, and Liam Kitching on the left.
The wing-back roles will be filled by Milan van Ewijk on the right and Kaine Kesler-Hayden on the left, both tasked with providing width and stretching Birmingham’s defensive shape. In central midfield, Jamie Allen is expected to sit deepest, dictating tempo and shielding the defence, alongside Matt Grimes, who offers leadership and progressive passing.
Josh Eccles should complete the midfield trio, providing energy and late runs into the box. Up front, Coventry are likely to pair Haji Wright with Ellis Simms, a strike partnership that combines physicality, pace, and intelligent movement, and will look to exploit any uncertainty in Birmingham’s reshuffled back line.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Rushworth; Latibeaudiere, Thomas, Kitching; Van Ewijk, Allen, Grimes, Eccles, Kesler-Hayden; Wright, Simms
As Birmingham search for defensive stability, Ellis Simms represents Coventry City’s most consistent attacking threat. The striker has been central to the Sky Blues’ rise to the top of the Championship table, combining physical presence with intelligent movement that makes him difficult to contain over 90 minutes.
Simms thrives when play is stretched, using his strength to pin centre-backs and create space for teammates around him. In a system built around wing-backs and midfield runners, his ability to occupy defenders allows Coventry to progress the ball quickly into dangerous areas. Against a Birmingham side dealing with suspensions and forced defensive pairings, Simms’ aerial ability and hold-up play could be particularly influential.
What sets him apart is his efficiency rather than volume. Simms does not need multiple chances to make an impact, and his timing in the box often turns marginal situations into goalscoring opportunities. If Coventry City are to turn territorial control into a decisive breakthrough at St Andrew’s, the 24-year-old is the player most likely to deliver it.
Birmingham City’s home form gives them a fighting chance, but the broader trajectory of this fixture favours Coventry City. The Sky Blues are still searching for cohesion and confidence, while injuries and suspensions continue to disrupt their rhythm.
Coventry, despite a recent dip in results, remain the most complete side in the Championship and are well equipped to manage pressure away from home. If the visitors can control midfield phases and supply Ellis Simms early, their physical edge and tactical clarity should gradually tell.
Birmingham City may compete for long spells, but sustaining intensity over 90 minutes looks a tall order given recent performances. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-0 win for Frank Lampard and his charges.
