Two sides hovering nervously above the relegation zone will collide under the lights at Elland Road on Friday night, as Leeds United host Nottingham Forest in a fixture that could have a significant bearing on the Premier League survival race.
Separated only by goal difference, both teams enter this contest fully aware that victory would provide not just three valuable points, but also a psychological lift at a tense stage of the season. With the bottom three never far from view, this has all the ingredients of a high-stakes, hard-fought encounter.
Leeds began the campaign widely tipped for an immediate return to the Championship following promotion, alongside Burnley and Sunderland. Early signs were encouraging, with a narrow opening-day win over Everton suggesting Daniel Farke’s side could adapt quickly to top-flight demands. That optimism faded during the autumn, however, as Leeds struggled for consistency and managed just two wins and two draws across a punishing 12-game stretch.
Momentum finally shifted in December, sparked by a statement 3-1 victory over Chelsea. Since then, Leeds have been far more competitive, losing only twice in their last 11 league matches and accumulating enough points to climb to 16th, six clear of the relegation zone. Yet that progress has not been linear.
A heavy 4-0 defeat at Arsenal last weekend served as a reminder of the gulf that still exists, and with just one win in their last seven league outings, Farke will be keen to see a more assertive response. Elland Road has been a crucial safety net.
Leeds United have been difficult to beat on home soil, suffering only three defeats from 12 league games, and their ability to grind out results in front of their own supporters could prove decisive once again. Nottingham Forest’s season, by contrast, has been defined by upheaval.
After finishing an impressive seventh last term and backing that success with significant summer investment, expectations were high. Those ambitions unravelled quickly amid internal tensions and managerial turmoil. The dismissal of Nuno Espirito Santo after a public breakdown in relations set the tone for a chaotic campaign.
Ange Postecoglou’s appointment failed to stabilise matters, with Forest winless across his eight matches in charge. The arrival of Sean Dyche as the club’s third permanent manager finally brought some structure and clarity. His impact was initially positive, delivering a run of solid league results and helping Nottingham Forest navigate their European commitments.
While a damaging four-game losing streak around the turn of the year threatened to drag them deeper into trouble, Forest have since steadied themselves. Two wins and two draws from their last four league matches have lifted them to 17th, also six points above the drop zone. A positive result at Elland Road would significantly strengthen their survival prospects.
Nottingham Forest will draw confidence from the reverse fixture, where goals from Ibrahim Sangare, Morgan Gibbs-White, and Elliot Anderson sealed a commanding 3-1 victory over Leeds United. Replicating that performance away from home will be more challenging, but Dyche’s side have shown an increased resilience in recent weeks. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
Leeds United will be without three attacking options for Friday night’s clash, with Jaka Bijol, Daniel James, and Lukas Nmecha all sidelined by muscle injuries. Bijol and James are recovering from hamstring problems, while Nmecha is nursing a thigh issue. None of the trio are expected to feature at Elland Road, although all three are projected to return in the coming weeks.
There are no suspension concerns for Daniel Farke, giving him a largely settled squad outside of those injury absences. Despite last weekend’s heavy 4-0 defeat away at Arsenal, Farke is expected to retain the five-at-the-back system that has brought Leeds United improved stability in recent months.
While the structure is likely to remain unchanged, personnel adjustments are anticipated as the Whites look for a response. Sebastiaan Bornauw is in line to return to the back three, potentially replacing James Justin, who may be redeployed further forward. In attack, Noah Okafor is pushing for a start after recent substitute appearances, offering added pace and directness.
From a tactical perspective, Leeds are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, designed to provide defensive solidity while allowing flexibility in transition. Karl Darlow is set to start in goal, shielded by a back three comprising Sebastiaan Bornauw on the right, Joe Rodon as the central defender, and Pascal Struijk on the left. This trio offers a mix of physical presence, aerial strength, and ball-playing ability.
In midfield, Jayden Bogle is likely to operate as the right wing-back, with James Justin expected to fill the role on the left, replacing Gabriel Gudmundsson. Centrally, captain Ethan Ampadu should anchor the midfield alongside Ilia Gruev, providing protection for the defence and helping dictate tempo.
Ahead of them, Anton Stach is expected to occupy one of the advanced midfield roles, with Noah Okafor operating slightly higher and closer to the forward line. Leading the attack, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is set to start as the lone striker, tasked with holding up play and bringing others into the game as Leeds look to make their home advantage count.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Darlow; Bornauw, Rodon, Struijk; Bogle, Ampadu, Gruev, Justin; Stach, Okafor; Calvert-Lewin
Nottingham Forest travel to Elland Road with a lengthy injury list and a key suspension to manage. Goalkeepers John Victor (knee) and Matz Sels (muscle) are both unavailable, while defensive and attacking options are also depleted, with Nicolo Savona and Chris Wood sidelined by knee injuries and Callum Hudson-Odoi ruled out due to a shoulder problem.
In addition, Neco Williams will miss the trip through suspension following his red card last weekend. There are no further disciplinary concerns, but the absences significantly limit Sean Dyche’s options, particularly at full-back and in goal. Those circumstances open the door for a debut between the posts for January arrival Stefan Ortega, who is expected to start in goal.
With Williams suspended, Morato is likely to deputise at left-back, while the rest of the defensive unit should remain settled. Further forward, Forest are expected to reshuffle their wide attacking roles, with Dan Ndoye a strong candidate to start on the right in Hudson-Odoi’s absence. The creative burden will again fall on Morgan Gibbs-White, supported by a midfield that has grown more robust under Dyche.
From a tactical standpoint, Forest are set to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, balancing defensive solidity with counter-attacking intent. Stefan Ortega is expected to start in goal, protected by a back four of Ola Aina at right-back, Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo as the central defensive pairing, and Morato filling in at left-back.
In midfield, Ibrahim Sangare should anchor the double pivot alongside Elliot Anderson, with the pair tasked with screening the defence and breaking up Leeds United’s transitions. Ahead of them, Dan Ndoye is likely to operate from the right flank, Morgan Gibbs-White will take up the central attacking midfield role, and Nicolas Dominguez is expected to feature on the left, forming a flexible trio behind the striker.
Leading the line, Igor Jesus should start as the lone centre-forward, charged with pressing from the front and capitalising on any openings as Nottingham Forest look to take something from a high-stakes encounter.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Ortega; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Morato; Sangare, Anderson; Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Dominguez; Jesus
The former Everton striker could be central to Leeds United’s hopes of turning pressure into points on Friday night. Leading the line in Daniel Farke’s system, his role goes beyond goalscoring, with his physical presence and hold-up play vital in bringing Leeds United’s attacking midfielders into the game.
Against a Nottingham Forest defence missing key personnel, Calvert-Lewin’s ability to occupy centre-backs, win aerial duels, and attack crosses from wide areas could prove decisive. Leeds are likely to look direct at times, particularly in transitions, and the Englishman offers a reliable outlet when building attacks under pressure.
If Leeds United are to make their home advantage count and create sustained threat inside the box, much will depend on Calvert-Lewin’s sharpness, movement, and finishing in key moments.
With both sides missing key players and fully aware of what is at stake, this looks set to be a tense and finely balanced contest. Leeds United’s home form and intensity at Elland Road give them a slight edge, especially against a Forest side weakened in defence and goal, but the visitors’ organisation under Sean Dyche should keep things tight.
Expect a cautious opening, few clear chances, and a game decided by small moments rather than sustained dominance. The Hard Tackle predicts a hard-fought 1-0 win for Daniel Farke and his charges
