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Aston Villa vs Leeds United: Preview and Prediction

Aston Villa and Leeds United will be eager to return to winning ways when they clash at Villa Park on Saturday.

The 2025/26 Premier League season resumes this weekend with Gameweek 27. The latest round of fixtures starts on Saturday with three successive matches, including Aston Villa vs Leeds United at Villa Park, with both sides eager to return to winning ways.

Aston Villa’s mind-blowing run is a thing of distant memory, as they have won only five of their last ten games across all competitions. The latest setback was a 3-1 defeat to Newcastle United in the FA Cup fourth round, and they are only alive in two competitions now. The Villans’ run in the Premier League has also been concerning, and their faint Premier League title hopes have started to disappear.

On the other hand, Leeds United may have started looking over their shoulders after West Ham United’s recent resurgent run. While the Whites have lost only one of their last five Premier League games, they are only six points ahead of the 18th-placed side. Daniel Farke’s men continued their solid run last weekend, as they beat Birmingham City on penalties to reach the FA Cup fifth round.

The reverse fixture saw Aston Villa come from a goal down to beat Leeds United 2-1, with Morgan Rogers scoring both goals for the West Midlands outfit. The Hard Tackle looks closer at the encounter ahead of the latest meeting between the two sides.

Team News & Tactics

Aston Villa

Unai Emery has a mixed bag of updates on the team news front ahead of his side’s latest fixture. The Aston Villa manager may be bereft of the services of over half a dozen first-team players vs Leeds United on Saturday.

Marco Bizot is the latest absentee after being sent off in the FA Cup clash with Newcastle United last weekend. Additionally, Andres Garcia (thigh), Boubacar Kamara (knee), Youri Tielemans (ankle), and John McGinn (knee) remain in the treatment room. Meanwhile, Matty Cash (knee) and Alysson (knock) face late fitness tests to determine their availability.

Emiliano Martinez is an automatic pick between the sticks, with Aston Villa lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation in front of him vs Leeds United on Saturday. The backline will feature Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Tyrone Mings, and Ian Maatsen. Konsa will start as the right-back, and Pau Torres will form the central defensive partnership alongside Mings if Cash is not fit and available.

As for the midfield unit, there is no looking past Andre Onana and Douglas Luiz in the double pivot. Morgan Rogers will reprise the no. 10 role, with Jadon Sancho and Emiliano Buendia being the two wide attackers. Finally, Ollie Watkins will lead the line for Aston Villa against Leeds United, with Tammy Abraham being a backup option on the bench.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Maatsen; Onana, Luiz; Sancho, Rogers, Buendia; Watkins

Leeds United

Unlike his counterpart in the Aston Villa dugout, Daniel Farke has received only positive updates on the team news front ahead of the trip to Villa Park. The Leeds United manager may be without only one first-team player on Saturday.

Pascal Struijk (hip), Anton Stach (hip), and Daniel James (back) are fit and available to take on Aston Villa. So, Noah Okafor is the only absentee for the away side, with the Swiss international recovering from a hamstring injury.

Karl Darlow will get the nod over Lucas Perri between the sticks, with Leeds United lining up in a 3-4-1-2 formation in front of him vs Aston Villa on Saturday. The central defensive unit will feature James Justin, Joe Rodon, and Pascal Struijk. Meanwhile, Jayden Bogle and Gabriel Gudmundsson will be the two wing-backs.

The wide duo will provide width in the final third and protect the centre-backs. As for the midfield unit, there is no looking past Ethan Ampadu and Ilia Gruev in the central areas. Brenden Aaronson will reprise the no. 10 role, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Lukas Nmecha completing the numbers in the offensive unit.

Probable Lineup (3-4-1-2): Darlow; Justin, Rodon, Struijk; Bogle, Ampadu, Gruev, Gudmundsson; Aaronson; Calvert-Lewin, Nmecha

Key Stats

  • Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games vs Leeds (W4 D2), and they are looking to complete the double over the West Yorkshire outfit for the second time in the competition after 1999/00. The Whites have lost their two most recent Premier League matches against Aston Villa, last losing three successive meetings between January and December 2000.
  • Aston Villa are unbeaten in all 18 Premier League games against promoted sides under Unai Emery (W14 D4).
  • Since the start of December, only Manchester City and Manchester United (1 each) have lost fewer Premier League games than Leeds United (2), although the Whites have the most draws in that timeframe too (7). However, the Whites have won just one of their last 18 Premier League away games (D5 L12), beating Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-1 in September. While they are winless in their last ten on the road, five of the six most recent matches have finished level, with the West Yorkshire outfit coming from 2-0 down to draw at Chelsea last time out.
  • There have been just seven goals scored in Aston Villa’s last six Premier League games (F4 A3), an average of just 1.2 per game. In their previous six games, more than triple the number of goals were scored in the West Yorkshire club’s games (23 – 3.8 per game).
  • Lukas Nmecha has been involved in three goals in his last two Premier League appearances (G2 A1). The German striker is averaging a goal every 115 minutes this season, the best of any Leeds United player in Premier League history to play 500+ minutes for the club.

Player to Watch

Morgan Rogers

Embed from Getty Images

While Ollie Watkins, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and Lukas Nmecha were viable candidates for this section, we have picked Morgan Rogers as the Player to Watch for Saturday’s Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Leeds United at Villa Park.

The English international scored both goals in Aston Villa’s 2-1 victory over Leeds United in November. Rogers leads all Aston Villa players in the Premier League this season for chances created (33), big chances created (10), assists (5), take-ons (101), touches in the opposition box (131) and has the joint most goals (8). So, he will be the go-to player for Unai Emery in this weekend’s Premier League fixture.

Prediction

Aston Villa 2-2 Leeds United

A few months ago, this may have been one of the matches one would have predicted as a run-of-the-mill victory for Aston Villa. However, with Leeds United becoming one of the most resilient teams in the Premier League and barely losing games in the last two months, a victory will be a tall order for the home side.

Additionally, with West Ham United only four points behind the West Yorkshire outfit, the away side will maintain the intensity and take the game to Aston Villa. The visitors will take advantage of Villa’s defensive vulnerabilities, and a closely-contested affair is on the cards. The Hard Tackle predicts a 2-2 draw for Saturday’s Premier League clash at Villa Park.

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