Stadio San Siro sets the stage for a ‘make or break’ Serie A showdown between top-four hopefuls Milan and out-of-form Atalanta. Milan’s season is at risk of fizzling out, with the Rossoneri running out of steam down the final stretch.
Fikayo Tomori’s first-half expulsion heavily contributed to Milan’s disappointing 2-0 defeat at mid-table Sassuolo last weekend, with Massimiliano Allegri’s side suffering their third loss in five league matches (W1, D1). With Juventus squeaking past Lecce yesterday, they’ve now leapfrogged Milan in the standings, heightening the pressure on the 19-time champions ahead of this clash.
Roma could intensify that pressure with a win at Parma earlier today, but it’ll eventually all come down to whether Milan can hold up their end of the bargain against Atalanta. Indeed, they still boast a three-point lead over the fifth-placed Giallorossi, meaning they remain in firm control of their top-four destiny, unlike Atalanta, whose European ambitions are effectively out of their hands.
A string of underwhelming results, bookended by a scoreless home draw against bottom-half Genoa last time out, has left Raffaele Palladino’s team on the precipice of missing out on European football for the first time since the 2022/23 season. Lazio denied La Dea an alternate route to continental qualification by beating them in the Coppa Italia semi-finals last month.
With seven points separating them from sixth-placed Como at the start of the round, anything other than a win at San Siro will spell the end of their European hopes.
Milan
Aware of the full-blown crisis in his midst, Allegri called an emergency meeting this week, hoping to stem the bleeding, as Milan had lost as many games in their last five league matches (3) as throughout the rest of the Serie A campaign combined. Now would be a perfect time for the Rossoneri to get back on track, yet their recent record against Atalanta cannot inspire confidence.
A 1-1 draw in October’s reverse fixture stretched Milan’s winless streak against La Dea to five Serie A matches (D2, L3). Furthermore, they’ve emerged victorious from only two of their last 11 top-flight encounters at San Siro (D5, L4), underscoring the magnitude of the task ahead. However, they must secure their first home win over Atalanta since February 2023 if they’re to keep Roma at bay.
That could prove easier said than done given the hosts’ spectacular downfall in recent weeks. No Serie A team has scored fewer goals than Milan since the start of April (1), with the Rossoneri ominously failing to find the back of the net across their last two league outings on home soil (D1, L1). As a result, they could go three consecutive Serie A home games without scoring for the first time since 2017.
Atalanta
Milan’s rough patch can encourage Atalanta, as they bid to bounce back from a five-game winless streak in all competitions (D2, L3) and stay close to Como ahead of the season finale. Like their rivals, they’ve found goals difficult to come by, scoring more than once in just one of those five matches, though it was in a 3-2 loss at Cagliari on their last road trip.
Winless in four successive Serie A games (D2, L2), Palladino’s men seem incapable of holding onto seventh spot, which could still guarantee European qualification, depending on the outcome of the upcoming Coppa Italia final. However, the visitors have faltered on the road lately, picking up just two wins from their last eight away league outings (D4, L2).
Atalanta’s miserable away form doesn’t end there. They have won none of their five league visits to sides currently above them in the standings (D4, L1), suggesting more pain could follow here. La Dea can still bank on their impressive run against Milan, though the fact that they have not kept a clean sheet in their last eight competitive away matches paints a bleak picture.
In addition to the suspended Tomori, Milan will also be without veteran superstar Luka Modric, who suffered a season-ending injury against Juventus. With the Croatian midfield dynamo out of contention for this match, it’ll likely be up to Ardon Jashari to fill the vacancy.
As for Atalanta, Lorenzo Bernasconi remains the only notable absentee, with Davide Zappacosta expected to take his place on the left wing. Meanwhile, Gianluca Scamacca might get the nod in attack ahead of Nikola Krstovic, who has failed to score in his last two Serie A appearances.
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan; De Winter, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Jashari, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Leao, Gimenez.
Atalanta (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi; Scalvini, Hien, Ahanor; Bellanova, De Roon, Ederson, Zappacosta; De Ketelaere, Zalewski; Scamacca.
Given what’s at stake here for both teams as well as their well-documented struggles in front of goal, this contest has all the makings of a tense and cagey affair that could be decided by the finest of margins. Even though a point won’t do much to help either side, a share of the spoils feels like the most realistic outcome.
Prediction: Draw
