Milan are on the brink of securing a coveted top-four finish as they face bottom-half Cagliari on the final day of the season. Sitting two points clear of Juventus and Como, they would secure a Champions League return with a win here.
Second-half goals from Christopher Nkunku and Zachary Athekame propelled the Rossoneri to a crucial 2-1 win at Genoa last weekend. With Juventus dropping points at home to Fiorentina, Massimiliano Allegri’s charges took advantage to put themselves in a prime position to clinch their fifth top-four finish in the last six seasons.
However, the job is not done yet, as they need to beat Cagliari at San Siro on Sunday night. Otherwise, they’d let the others determine their fate, a luxury they cannot afford after doing much of the heavy lifting at Stadio Luigi Ferraris last week. That victory merely served to end Milan’s dreadful three-game winless streak in Serie A (D1, L2).
Therefore, there’s no room for complacency, even though they face a Cagliari side with nothing but pride left to play for. Fabio Pisacane’s charges had successfully staved off relegation even before beating mid-table Torino 2-1 at home last time out.
Still, an unlikely win here, coupled with several favorable results elsewhere, could see the Sardinians climb to 12th in the table. That would mark their best finish in the top flight since the 2016/17 season, when they secured 11th place.
Milan
Despite gaining the upper hand in a fiercely contested top-four race, Milan cannot take anything for granted, especially at San Siro. After suffering just two defeats in their first 15 home league games this season (W9, D4), they have lost twice in their last three such fixtures (D1), conceding precisely three goals in both those reverses.
However, after squeaking past Genoa, Milan can win back-to-back league matches for the first time since early March, and it’s fair to say that Cagliari’s upcoming visit bodes well. Indeed, the 19-time Italian champions have only lost one of their last 41 Serie A meetings with the Islanders (W31, D10). Furthermore, they’ve been particularly dominant on home turf.
Cagliari’s last victory at San Siro dates back to December 1997. Since then, Milan have emerged victorious from 18 of their 21 encounters at this venue (D3), though one of those three draws came in this corresponding fixture last season. A repeat looks highly unlikely, given that they’ve won on the final day in seven of the last eight Serie A seasons.
Cagliari
Having already secured Serie A survival, Cagliari take this trip with no pressure on their shoulders, knowing they cannot drop any lower than their current 16th place. Nevertheless, Pisacane’s men are looking to avoid the ignominy of going three consecutive away matches in the top flight without scoring for the first time since 2021.
That could prove easier said than done, especially considering they head into this showdown on a dismal six-game winless run away from home (D2, L4). It’s also worth noting that Cagliari’s only road win in 2026 came against fellow bottom-half strugglers Fiorentina in late January, highlighting the depth of their traveling crisis.
On a rare positive note, the Sardinians’ fighting spirit has been unmatched this term, with the visitors avoiding defeat in a league-high eight matches when conceding first (W3, D5, L15). Still, they’ve been notoriously prone to slow starts on their travels, netting just six first-half goals across 18 Serie A road trips this season.
In addition to welcoming the likes of Pervis Estupinan, Alexis Saelemaekers, and Rafael Leao back from suspension, Milan can once again call upon veteran superstar Luka Modric. The Croatian midfielder has shrugged off a nasty facial injury to put himself at Allegri’s disposal for this ‘make or break’ clash and is expected to take Samuele Ricci’s place in the starting XI.
On the other hand, Riyad Idrissi and Mattia Felici are the only definite absentees in the Cagliari squad. Meanwhile, Leonardo Pavoletti and Luca Mazzitelli are facing a race against time to make themselves available for this ‘dead rubber,’ with ex-Inter starlet Sebastiano Esposito likely to lead the line for the visitors.
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Athekame, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Leao, Nkunku.
Cagliari (4-3-2-1): Caprile; Zappa, Mina, Dossena, Palestra; Obert, Adopo, Deiola; Gaetano, Mendy; Esposito.
Since this could be Allegri’s final game in charge of Milan, we expect the 58-year-old to waltz away in style. There’s no margin for error if the Rossoneri are to dine at Europe’s top table next season, and with little to play for here, Cagliari may not offer much of a resistance.
Prediction: Milan to Win
