Borussia Dortmund will head into their final Bundesliga game of the season against already-relegated Holstein Kiel with Champions League qualification still within reach. The Black and Yellows sit fifth with 54 points, just one point behind fourth-placed Freiburg, who currently hold the last Champions League spot. A win on Saturday at Signal Iduna Park could propel Dortmund into the top four, provided Freiburg stumble against third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt.
Dortmund have hit a purple patch of form at a crucial time, winning five consecutive matches, including a thrilling 4-2 victory over Bayer Leverkusen on May 11. Despite creating just over one expected goal (xG) and two big chances in that game, BVB converted five of their 13 touches inside the box into goals, underscoring their clinical edge.
Niko Kovac’s men have netted 19 goals across their last six outings but have also shown vulnerability at the back, conceding nine times in that span. Nonetheless, their recent home form has been exceptional. Dortmund have won their last four fixtures at Signal Iduna Park, scoring 13 goals while conceding just four.
Dortmund’s goal difference of +17 gives them a slight cushion over sixth-placed Mainz (+12) and seventh-placed RB Leipzig (+6), though anything less than a win on Saturday could see them slip further down the table if results elsewhere go against them.
Holstein Kiel’s relegation was confirmed after their 2-1 defeat to Freiburg on May 10, capping off a season marred by defensive frailties. The Storks have conceded a staggering 77 goals this term — the worst defensive record in the Bundesliga.
Despite their struggles, Marcel Rapp’s side pulled off a shock 4-2 win over Dortmund in the reverse fixture on January 14, a result that now serves as a psychological boost heading into Saturday’s clash. Notably, they limited Dortmund to just one big chance that day, showcasing a rare moment of defensive discipline.
Kiel have picked up two wins and a draw in their last three away matches, maintaining a surprisingly decent run of form despite their relegation. If they find the back of the net at Signal Iduna Park, they will become only the 11th team in Bundesliga history to score in every away fixture throughout a single season. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Borussia Dortmund will have to cope without midfielder Pascal Gross, who is suspended after accumulating too many yellow cards. Marcel Sabitzer is expected to step into the starting lineup to partner Felix Nmecha in central midfield.
Dortmund are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation. Gregor Kobel will start in goal, tasked with commanding his area and organising the defence.
Niklas Sule, Waldemar Anton, and Ramy Bensebaini will operate as the three centre-backs. Sule will anchor the central role, with Anton and Bensebaini providing cover on either side. The wing-back positions will see Julian Ryerson on the right and Henrik Svensson on the left, responsible for both defensive duties and providing width in the attacking phase.
In central midfield, Marcel Sabitzer will partner Felix Nmecha, with both players expected to control the tempo and link the defence to the attack. Further forward, Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi will operate as the dual attacking midfielders, working in tandem to create opportunities and exploit spaces behind the opposition defence.
Serhou Guirassy will spearhead the attack as the lone striker, looking to capitalise on service from Brandt and Adeyemi while also engaging in hold-up play to bring others into the game.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Kobel; Sule, Anton, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Sabitzer, Nmecha, Svensson; Brandt, Adeyemi; Guirassy
Holstein Kiel enter the match with significant squad issues, particularly in defence. Midfielder Armin Gigovic is suspended due to yellow card accumulation, meaning Nicolai Remberg and Magnus Knudsen will be the likely starters in central midfield.
The defensive situation is even more concerning for manager Marcel Rapp. The Storks will be without four key centre-backs, Colin Kleine-Bekel, Ivan Nekic, Marco Komenda, and Patrick Erras, all ruled out due to injuries. In attack, Andu Yobel Kelati remains sidelined with an ongoing injury.
Holstein Kiel are expected to line up in a 3-4-1-2 formation. Thomas Dahne will start in goal, tasked with commanding the defensive line and providing stability amidst the defensive reshuffle.
The back three will consist of Timo Becker, Carl Johansson, and David Zec. Becker will play on the right side of the trio, with Johansson positioned centrally to provide leadership, and Zec on the left to complete the defensive line. On the flanks, Mikkel Rosenboom will occupy the right wing-back role, with John Tolkin providing width on the left. Both players will have dual responsibilities, supporting the attack while covering the vulnerable defence.
In central midfield, Nicolai Remberg and Magnus Knudsen will form the core duo. They will be expected to protect the backline and initiate transitions, given the lack of defensive solidity behind them. Steven Skrzybski will play as the advanced midfielder, operating as the primary creative outlet behind the front two. His ability to link play and provide service to the forwards will be crucial, especially given the absence of Kelati.
Alexander Bernhardsson and Shuto Machino will lead the line as the two strikers, with Bernhardsson’s pace and Machino’s physical presence providing contrasting threats up front.
Probable Lineup (3-4-1-2): Dahne; Becker, Johansson, Zec; Rosenboom, Remberg, Knudsen, Tolkin; Skrzybski; Bernhardsson, Machino
Serhou Guirassy has emerged as a crucial figure for Borussia Dortmund in recent weeks, particularly with the club’s attacking options depleted by injuries. The 27-year-old striker is expected to lead the line against Holstein Kiel, and his presence could be pivotal in a must-win clash for BVB.
Guirassy has proven to be a reliable focal point in attack, displaying a strong physical presence, aerial prowess, and clinical finishing inside the box. His ability to hold up the ball and link up with attacking midfielders like Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi will be vital in breaking down a Kiel defence that has been porous throughout the season.
Despite limited appearances, Guirassy has shown glimpses of his goalscoring potential, particularly in Dortmund’s recent 4-2 victory over Bayer Leverkusen, where his movement and positioning created space for his teammates. Against a Holstein Kiel side that has conceded 77 goals this season , the worst defensive record in the Bundesliga, Guirassy will fancy his chances of finding the back of the net.
Moreover, with Dortmund needing a three-goal margin to potentially leapfrog Freiburg and secure a Champions League berth, the pressure will be on Guirassy to deliver. If he can replicate his recent form and exploit the defensive vulnerabilities of Kiel, he could be the difference-maker in a crucial fixture for Niko Kovac’s side.
Dortmund’s current form, especially at home, should see them through comfortably against a Kiel side that has little left to play for. However, the Storks’ ability to score on the road and their unexpected win over Dortmund earlier in the season cannot be overlooked. Expect the visitors to play with freedom, but Dortmund’s attacking firepower and desperation to secure Champions League football should be decisive.
