The stakes could not be higher for RB Leipzig as they host VfB Stuttgart in their final Bundesliga game of the season, with their chances of securing European football hanging by a thread. Leipzig’s disappointing 0-0 draw with Werder Bremen last time out left them in seventh place, level on 51 points with Mainz 05, who currently occupy the final European spot.
However, with a goal difference of just six, half of Mainz’s 12, Leipzig’s prospects of playing in Europe next season are at serious risk. Against Bremen, Leipzig were fortunate to come away with a point, having conceded six big chances while failing to register a goal.
Despite the clean sheet, their first in eight matches, the hosts remain winless in their last four fixtures, a run that includes three draws and a defeat. Their attacking struggles have been particularly evident, as they have failed to find the back of the net in two of their last three outings.
Interim boss Zsolt Low will be acutely aware of the implications of this match. A loss to Stuttgart would likely see Leipzig drop out of European contention, a significant blow for a club that has grown accustomed to continental competition in recent seasons. The pressure is further amplified by their recent form at Red Bull Arena, where they have drawn their last two games but previously won seven of their last ten, suffering only one defeat in that stretch.
While Leipzig are struggling to find consistency, Stuttgart head into the clash with momentum, having thrashed Augsburg 4-0 in their most recent outing. However, it must be noted that Sebastian Hoeness’s side benefited from a numerical advantage, as Augsburg were reduced to ten men in the 12th minute, with Stuttgart already holding a 1-0 lead.
The visitors eventually found their rhythm in the second half, scoring three more goals to secure their second consecutive clean sheet, a first since May 2024. That defensive resilience will be crucial as they look to extend a remarkable run against Leipzig, having won their last three encounters against Die Roten Bullen by a cumulative score of 10-4.
Despite their recent victories, Stuttgart’s form has been somewhat inconsistent, with two losses and a draw preceding their back-to-back wins. However, they have proven to be a tough opponent on the road, losing just two of their last 13 away matches while claiming seven wins. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Leipzig enter their final Bundesliga fixture of the season, grappling with significant defensive absences. Lukas Klostermann is unavailable due to suspension, while Benjamin Henrichs and Willi Orban are both sidelined with injuries. These absences will likely force interim boss Zsolt Low to reshuffle his backline, with Castello Lukeba and El Chadaille Bitshiabu expected to form a makeshift central defensive partnership.
In the full-back positions, David Raum is likely to continue on the left, providing both defensive coverage and attacking width. On the right, Kosta Nedeljkovic is set to start, as Leipzig attempt to cope without their regular defensive options.
The situation is not much better in midfield, with Amadou Haidara still dealing with ligament damage, ruling him out of this crucial encounter. In his absence, Nicolas Seiwald and Arthur Vermeeren are expected to occupy the central midfield roles. Seiwald’s passing range and Vermeeren’s physical presence will be crucial in controlling the game, particularly given Leipzig’s recent struggles to maintain possession under pressure.
In attack, Zsolt Low is expected to opt for a front two of Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda. Sesko’s aerial ability and hold-up play will complement Openda’s pace and direct running, as Leipzig look to exploit Stuttgart’s defensive vulnerabilities. Wide support will come from Ridle Baku on the right and Xavi Simons on the left, both of whom will be tasked with stretching the pitch and providing service to the forwards.
In goal, Peter Gulacsi remains the first-choice goalkeeper, tasked with organising a much-altered backline in what could be Leipzig’s last chance to secure European qualification. Leipzig are expected to set up in a 4-4-2 formation.
Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Gulacsi; Nedeljkovic, Bitshiabu, Lukeba, Raum; Baku, Seiwald, Vermeeren, Simons; Sesko, Openda
Stuttgart face considerable defensive challenges heading into their final Bundesliga fixture against RB Leipzig, with several key players ruled out. Ameen Al-Dakhil, Dan-Axel Zagadou, Finn Jeltsch, and Leonidas Stergiou are all unavailable due to injuries, severely depleting Stuttgart’s options in the backline.
With so many defensive absentees, head coach Sebastian Hoeness is expected to field a makeshift back four comprising Josha Vagnoman at right-back, Luca Jaquez and Julian Chabot as the central defensive pairing, and Maximilian Mittelstadt at left-back. This backline will be tasked with containing Leipzig’s pacey attack while maintaining a compact shape to minimize gaps.
In midfield, Stuttgart suffered another setback during the 4-0 victory over Augsburg, as Angelo Stiller was forced off in the first half due to injury. His absence is likely to result in Atakan Karazor and Enzo Millot starting as the central midfield duo. Karazor’s defensive work rate and Millot’s passing ability will be crucial as Stuttgart aim to disrupt Leipzig’s buildup play and launch quick counter-attacks.
On the flanks, Jamie Leweling is expected to operate on the right, providing pace and width, while Chris Fuhrich will be positioned on the left, looking to cut inside and link up with the forwards.
In attack, Stuttgart are likely to deploy a front two consisting of Deniz Undav and Nick Woltemade. Undav’s physicality and hold-up play will complement Woltemade’s ability to make runs in behind, giving Stuttgart a varied attacking threat.
Goalkeeper Alexander Nubel will retain his place between the posts, tasked with organizing a reshuffled backline that has been forced into several changes due to injuries. Stuttgart are expected to adopt a 4-4-2 formation, with a focus on maintaining defensive solidity while seeking to exploit Leipzig’s defensive vulnerabilities through quick transitions and aerial duels in the attacking third.
Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Nubel; Vagnoman, Jaquez, Chabot, Mittelstadt; Leweling, Karazor, Millot, Fuhrich; Undav, Woltemade
VfB Stuttgart have dominated their recent encounters with RB Leipzig, winning each of their last three competitive matches against the Red Bulls, including this season’s DFB-Pokal semi-final. However, all three victories came at home, and the Swabians have lost all six of their Bundesliga away games against Leipzig.
With 51 points from 33 games, this is RB Leipzig’s second-worst Bundesliga season since their top-flight debut. The only worse campaign was in 2017/18, when they had 50 points at this stage. Their tally of 13 wins from 33 matches is also their lowest-ever in the Bundesliga.
RB Leipzig have officially missed out on Champions League qualification for only the second time in their top-flight history, the first being in 2017/18. They now face the prospect of failing to finish in the top six for the first time ever, potentially missing out on European football entirely.
Stuttgart’s 47 points from 33 matches represents their second-best Bundesliga campaign since returning to the top flight in 2019/20. They have only been in a better position at this stage last season when they had 70 points. Stuttgart have picked up as many points in their last two league games (6) as they did in their previous 10 fixtures combined (W1 D3 L6).
VfB Stuttgart have now kept two consecutive clean sheets for the first time since the final two matchdays of last season. The last time they managed three straight Bundesliga shutouts was from April to May 2018 under Tayfun Korkut.
Sesko has been one of RB Leipzig’s most dangerous attacking threats throughout the season, and he will be crucial in their bid to secure European football against Stuttgart. Despite Leipzig’s inconsistent form, Sesko has remained a consistent contributor in front of goal, using his imposing physical presence and sharp finishing ability to trouble opposition defences.
The Slovenian striker’s movement in the box and aerial ability make him a constant threat, particularly against a Stuttgart side that has struggled to deal with powerful centre-forwards in recent fixtures. With Leipzig desperately needing a win to keep their European hopes alive, expect Sesko to take on a central role in their attacking play, looking to add to his goal tally and finish the season on a high note.
Despite RB Leipzig’s superior home record earlier in the season, their recent struggles and Stuttgart’s resurgence suggest the visitors could have the edge. Expect a closely-fought contest with both teams creating chances, but Stuttgart’s recent momentum and Leipzig’s defensive frailties could see the Swabians nicking a narrow win.
