The Serie A title race has taken on a gripping narrative heading into the penultimate round of fixtures, with league leaders Napoli making the trip to the Tardini to face a Parma side still fighting to secure their top-flight status. For Napoli, the stakes are monumental; three points would keep them in control of the title race, while a slip-up could see Inter Milan snatch the advantage with just one matchday remaining.
For Parma, the stakes are no less significant. Cristian Chivu’s side have been dragged back into the relegation fight after suffering consecutive defeats against Inter Milan and Empoli, the latter of which was particularly damaging given the early red card to Lautaro Valenti that saw Parma play with ten men for over an hour. Despite their recent setbacks, the Gialloblu remain four points clear of the bottom three, but with matches against title-chasing Napoli and top-half Fiorentina still to come, survival is far from guaranteed.
Napoli, on the other hand, arrive in Emilia-Romagna with a point to prove. Antonio Conte’s men had been cruising towards their second Scudetto in three years, posting four straight wins without conceding a goal before last weekend’s unexpected 2-2 draw against Genoa. Despite leading twice through goals from Romelu Lukaku and Giacomo Raspadori, Napoli’s defensive lapses allowed Genoa to snatch a late equaliser, leaving Conte visibly frustrated at the final whistle. It was a result that left the door ajar for Inter Milan, who are now just one point behind with two matches remaining.
Conte’s post-match comments reflected his growing concern over Napoli’s recent defensive fragility, particularly given that they had kept four consecutive clean sheets prior to conceding twice against Genoa. With Alessandro Buongiorno and Juan Jesus still sidelined, the makeshift centre-back pairing of Mathias Olivera and Amir Rrahmani will need to be far more composed against a Parma attack that, despite its inconsistency, has proven capable of finding the net at home.
Parma’s home form, in fact, has been one of their few redeeming features this season. The Gialloblu have beaten Lazio, Bologna and Juventus at the Tardini while also battling back to earn a 2-2 draw against Inter Milan — a performance that showcased both their resilience and their ability to punish defensive mistakes. However, their tendency to shoot themselves in the foot was on full display against Empoli, where a reckless challenge from Valenti led to his dismissal and ultimately cost them the game.
In attack, much will rest on the shoulders of Dennis Politic and Cristian Zanimacchia. Politic has been Parma’s most consistent attacking outlet, leading the team in both goals and assists, but he will need support from Zanimacchia, who is expected to drop deeper and link play in the absence of the suspended Valenti. Meanwhile, Valentin Mihaila remains a wild card on the left flank, capable of producing moments of brilliance but equally prone to frustrating inconsistency.
Napoli, meanwhile, are expected to revert to a more disciplined approach, with Antonio Conte keen to tighten up the defence and avoid the kind of sloppy mistakes that cost them against Genoa. The combination of Billy Gilmour and Scott McTominay in midfield has been a revelation, with the latter scoring four goals in his last three appearances. McTominay’s late runs into the box and aerial presence have given Napoli an added dimension, particularly against sides that sit deep and defend in numbers.
Up front, the partnership of Romelu Lukaku and Giacomo Raspadori will once again carry the attacking burden. Lukaku has been a consistent threat, using his physicality to bully defenders and his link-up play to create chances for Raspadori. The Italian forward has also been in superb form, scoring crucial goals at critical moments, and he will undoubtedly look to exploit any gaps in Parma’s backline.
However, Napoli’s attack may not find it easy against a Parma side that has only conceded 21 goals at home this season, the fourth-best defensive record in the bottom half of the table. Cristian Chivu will likely instruct his side to sit deep, remain compact and try to hit Napoli on the counter, utilising Mihaila’s pace and Zanimacchia’s ability to pick a pass.
Nevertheless, with the title on the line and Inter breathing down their necks, Napoli cannot afford to let this opportunity slip away. Conte’s men have shown a ruthless streak in recent weeks, particularly in their 3-0 win over Lazio and 4-0 dismantling of Sampdoria, and they will need to channel that same intensity to keep their Scudetto dream alive. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Parma enter this crucial encounter against Napoli with a significantly depleted squad, as several key players remain unavailable due to injuries and suspensions. The defensive line is particularly affected, with Alessandro Vogliacco, Yordan Osorio, and Lautaro Valenti all ruled out. Valenti’s suspension for his red card against Empoli is a significant blow, depriving Cristian Chivu’s side of their most experienced centre-back at a time when they are desperate for points.
In attack, Milan Djuric provided a timely reminder of his capabilities by finding the net against Empoli, but the veteran forward is still expected to start from the bench as Chivu opts for the more mobile pairing of Ange-Yoan Bonny and Mateo Pellegrino. Djuric could, however, be introduced later in the game, especially if Parma are chasing a result.
In midfield, the Gialloblu are also short of options, with Nahuel Estevez and Adrian Bernabe both dealing with muscular problems that could restrict them to the bench at best. The central midfield trio is likely to consist of Hernani, Sohm, and Keita, with Keita playing a more advanced role in support of the strikers.
On the flanks, Emanuele del Prato and Antoine Hainaut are expected to occupy the wing-back positions, tasked with providing width and delivering crosses to the front two. Defensively, the back three will likely consist of Enrico Del Prato, Botond Balogh, and Giovanni Leoni, all of whom will need to be at their best to contain Napoli’s potent attack. Goalkeeper Zion Suzuki will continue to deputise between the sticks, aiming to organise a reshuffled and somewhat vulnerable backline.
Parma are expected to line up in a 3-5-2 formation, focusing on defensive solidity and counter-attacking through the pace and movement of Bonny and Pellegrino. The midfield will be compact, with Keita attempting to break forward and link up with the front two whenever possible.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Suzuki; Del Prato, Leoni, Balogh; Hainaut, Hernani, Keita, Sohm, Valeri; Pellegrino, Bonny
Napoli’s title push has been hampered by injuries to several key players, with Antonio Conte forced to reshuffle his starting XI once again. Stanislav Lobotka, who was risked despite not being fully fit against Genoa, will miss out against Parma, joining Alessandro Buongiorno and Juan Jesus on the absentee list. Lobotka’s absence is a particularly significant blow given his importance in Napoli’s ball progression and midfield control.
As a result, Billy Gilmour will retain his place in the starting lineup, partnering with fellow Scot Scott McTominay, who continues to impress in his debut Serie A season. McTominay has been in exceptional form, contributing 15 goal involvements — the most by a Napoli midfielder in 14 years. Gilmour, meanwhile, will be tasked with maintaining possession and distributing effectively against a Parma side expected to sit deep.
At the back, Mathias Olivera will continue to fill in as a centre-back alongside Amir Rrahmani, given the unavailability of Buongiorno and Jesus. Olivera, typically a left-back, has been asked to step into a more central role, with Leonardo Spinazzola taking up the left-back spot. Giovanni Di Lorenzo will continue to operate as the right-back, providing width and crossing ability from the flanks.
Up front, Romelu Lukaku remains the focal point of Napoli’s attack. The Belgian striker, who scored a crucial late goal against Parma in the reverse fixture back in August, will be partnered by Giacomo Raspadori. The Italian forward has rediscovered his form in recent weeks, scoring in both of his last two appearances, as Conte’s tactical switch to a 4-4-2 formation has allowed him to play closer to Lukaku and benefit from the Belgian’s hold-up play.
In wide areas, Matteo Politano will look to provide service from the right, while André-Frank Zambo Anguissa will occupy the left-midfield position, offering defensive cover and a box-to-box presence.
In goal, Alex Meret continues as the first-choice shot-stopper, aiming to marshal a backline that has kept four clean sheets in its last five matches.
Napoli are expected to line up in a 4-4-2 formation, utilizing the physicality of Lukaku and the clever movement of Raspadori to break down a Parma defence that has been weakened by suspensions and injuries.
Probable Lineup (4-4-2): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Olivera, Spinazzola; Politano, Anguissa, Gilmour, McTominay; Raspadori, Lukaku
Napoli have won their last three Serie A encounters against Parma and are now aiming for their fourth consecutive victory against the Ducali. They have never achieved such a streak against Parma in the top flight.
Across the last 18 Serie A meetings between these two sides, there has been only one draw — a 2-2 result on May 10th, 2015. Napoli have claimed 11 wins in that span, while Parma have managed six victories.
In their last 14 matches at the Tardini stadium, the record is evenly split, with both Parma and Napoli securing six wins each, alongside two draws. The goal count is nearly balanced as well, with Parma netting 21 times and Napoli scoring 20 goals.
Napoli dominated newly promoted teams in the first half of the season, winning all three home games against such opposition. However, in the second half of the campaign, they have managed just one point from two away matches against these sides, a defeat to Como and a draw against Venezia.
Parma have lost their last two league matches after going unbeaten in eight of their first nine games under Cristian Chivu (W2 D6). Additionally, they have already endured two separate runs of at least three consecutive defeats in Serie A this season, first between January and February, and then again in December 2024.
Lukaku remains Napoli’s primary attacking threat and a player with a point to prove as the Serie A title race reaches its climax. The Belgian forward has been pivotal in Napoli’s campaign, scoring crucial goals at critical moments. Despite the Partenopei’s minor stumble last week against Genoa, Lukaku has been in prolific form, finding the net consistently since Antonio Conte reintroduced him as the focal point in attack.
Lukaku’s physical presence, hold-up play, and aerial dominance will be vital against a Parma defence that has looked vulnerable in recent weeks, particularly in dealing with powerful strikers. Moreover, his partnership with Giacomo Raspadori has blossomed, and the duo will likely be tasked with breaking down a Parma side desperate to avoid relegation.
With Inter Milan breathing down Napoli’s neck in the title race, Lukaku’s ability to deliver under pressure could make all the difference. A strong performance here could not only edge Napoli closer to a second Scudetto in three seasons but also solidify Lukaku’s status as one of Serie A’s top strikers this term.
Napoli have been the best defensive side in Serie A all season, conceding just 27 goals in 36 matches, and they have shown they can handle the pressure of must-win games. While Parma’s home form has been respectable, their recent collapse against Empoli suggests a side that is running out of steam at the wrong time.
Expect Napoli to dominate possession, press high up the pitch, and use their physicality and aerial prowess to unsettle a makeshift Parma defence. Lukaku and Raspadori will be key once again, with McTominay providing a late run threat from midfield. However, Parma are unlikely to go down without a fight, especially with Serie A survival still on the line. The hosts have proven they can score against top teams, and they may nick a goal on the break.
