Italy’s road to World Cup 2026 qualification has begun in the worst possible fashion, and with pressure already mounting, Luciano Spalletti’s side head into Monday’s home clash against Moldova knowing that anything less than victory could have serious consequences, both for their campaign and their manager’s future.
After a shocking 3-0 defeat to Norway in Oslo, the four-time world champions find themselves staring down the barrel of another qualification crisis. Despite bossing possession at the Ullevaal Stadion, Italy were repeatedly punished on the counter and showed little attacking inspiration. Their only shot on target, a stoppage-time header from substitute Lorenzo Lucca, was a stark reminder of how toothless they were throughout the 90 minutes.
The scars of past failures are still fresh. Italy haven’t appeared at a World Cup since 2014. They were stunned by Sweden in the playoffs for Russia 2018 and suffered the now-infamous elimination to North Macedonia ahead of Qatar 2022. That recurring spectre of the playoff gauntlet looms large once more, and Spalletti’s tenure, which began with high expectations following a title-winning season at Napoli, is already under intense scrutiny.
Italy currently trail group leaders Norway by nine points, albeit with two games in hand. But given the format and limited room for error, even that gap feels daunting. A win over Moldova in Reggio Emilia is non-negotiable. With Israel likely to emerge as Italy’s main rival for second place, and with Estonia and Moldova already struggling, the Azzurri cannot afford any more stumbles.
The match also takes on personal significance for Spalletti, who has reportedly agreed to hold discussions with the FIGC following the game. A failure to win at home could mark the beginning of the end for his brief spell in charge.
While Italy’s problems are of their own making, their opponents are dealing with familiar limitations. Moldova, ranked 162nd by FIFA, have never qualified for a major tournament and come into this clash with zero points from two qualifiers. A 5-0 defeat to Norway and a 3-2 home loss to Estonia have left them rock-bottom in Group I, level with Italy but with far less expectation.
Their most recent outing, a 2-0 friendly defeat in Poland, did little to inspire confidence, but manager Serghei Clescenco may quietly sense an opportunity. Italy’s aura has diminished, and the tension around the squad could open the door for a spirited Moldovan performance.
Still, the numbers don’t lie: Moldova have lost all four previous World Cup qualifiers against Italy, shipping nine goals and scoring just two. The last time they met, in a 2019 friendly, they were beaten 6-0. If they are to pull off what would be one of the biggest shocks in their history, it will require discipline, organisation, and a slice of fortune. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how both sides could line up and what tactics they might employ on the day.
Italy head into Monday’s must-win encounter against Moldova with mounting pressure and a reshuffled squad. Luciano Spalletti has confirmed he will stick with his preferred 3-5-2 formation, but changes are inevitable following the disjointed and disheartening 3-0 loss to Norway. The Italy boss is expected to bring in both tactical and personnel adjustments in a bid to restore order and urgency to a side that looked uninspired in Oslo.
In terms of absentees, the Azzurri have been hit hard by injuries and unavailability. Moise Kean (Fiorentina) and Manuel Locatelli (Juventus) were both forced to withdraw from the squad due to fitness issues, while defenders Riccardo Calafiori, Alessandro Buongiorno, and Matteo Gabbia have also pulled out due to injury. Veteran defender Francesco Acerbi declined a recall, citing concerns over a lack of respect, further limiting Spalletti’s options at the back.
The decision to start debutant Diego Coppola against Norway backfired, with the young centre-back struggling under pressure. It remains unclear whether he will retain his place, but a reshuffle in defence is expected. Spalletti may turn to experience and composure as he seeks a more stable back line to shield captain Gianluigi Donnarumma, who remains the undisputed No. 1 between the posts.
The formation will feature Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, marshalled by a three-man defence comprising Giovanni Di Lorenzo on the right, Luca Ranieri in the central role, and Alessandro Bastoni on the left of the back three. The wing-back roles are set to be filled by Andrea Cambiaso on the right and Destiny Udogie on the left, both of whom are expected to provide energy and width in transition.
In central midfield, Samuele Ricci is likely to be given the nod to inject composure and distribution, while Sandro Tonali will sit deeper to anchor play and break up opposition counters. Davide Frattesi, a player capable of bursting forward and linking with the forwards, is expected to complete the midfield trio.
Up front, Giacomo Raspadori will look to operate between the lines, supporting centre-forward Mateo Retegui, who will be tasked with holding up play and capitalising on Moldova’s defensive vulnerabilities. The duo will need to be more clinical than what was witnessed in the previous outing if Italy are to silence doubts and climb off the bottom of Group I.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Ranieri, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Ricci, Tonali, Udogie; Raspadori, Retegui
Moldova enter Monday’s clash in Reggio Emilia as heavy underdogs and will be without Maxim Cojocaru, who is suspended following a red card received in their 3-2 loss to Estonia back in March. The Oțelul Galați winger’s absence removes one of Moldova’s more dynamic wide options, forcing head coach Serghei Cleșcenco to consider alternatives in midfield.
There could be a potential role for Sergiu Perciun, the teenage midfielder from Torino, who made his senior debut in the recent friendly defeat to Poland. With Moldova lacking depth in the middle of the park, Perciun may be handed more minutes in familiar surroundings on Italian soil. Veteran midfielder Artur Ioniță, who has spent most of his club career in Italy, will be vital in offering stability and experience against a technically superior Azzurri side.
Up front, the responsibility of leading the line will once again fall on Ion Nicolaescu, Moldova’s all-time leading scorer with 17 international goals. He is expected to be supported by Mihail Caimacov, the Slaven Belupo forward, who will likely operate in a wide or deeper role to help transition Moldova into attack.
Tactically, Moldova are expected to line up in a deep-lying 5-4-1 formation, designed to absorb pressure and frustrate the Italians. Cristian Avram will start in goal, protected by a five-man defence comprising Sergiu Platica and Oleg Reabciuk in the wing-back roles, with Victor Mudrac, Veaceslav Posmac, and Vladislav Baboglo forming the central defensive block.
The midfield will include Mihail Caimacov and Artur Ioniță on the flanks, while Vadim Rață and Nikita Motpan are expected to patrol central areas. Their primary task will be to break up Italian possession and limit space between the lines. Ion Nicolaescu, as the lone striker, will aim to exploit any rare opportunities that come his way, particularly on the counterattack.
Probable Lineup (5-4-1): Avram; Platica, Posmac, Baboglo, Mudrac, Reabciuk; Caicamov, Motpan, Rata, Ionita; Nicolaescu
As Italy seek to steady their World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign, all eyes will turn to Sandro Tonali, the midfield engine tasked with dictating tempo and restoring structure to a side rattled by recent setbacks. With the Azzurri needing both control and conviction against a deep-sitting Moldova, Tonali’s role becomes pivotal.
Often likened to Andrea Pirlo for his passing range and vision, Tonali brings more than just flair—his tactical discipline and ability to shield the back line will be crucial as Italy aim to avoid being exposed on the counter once again, as they were in the defeat to Norway. Deployed at the base of Luciano Spalletti’s three-man midfield, Tonali will be responsible for breaking up play, recycling possession, and launching Italy’s attacks from deep.
Facing a Moldova side expected to defend in numbers and sit compact in a 5-4-1 shape, Italy will need patient buildup and incisive distribution, qualities Tonali excels at. His ability to switch the play, feed the wing-backs, and push the tempo will be essential in breaking down a low block.
Moreover, with several senior midfielders absent, most notably Manuel Locatelli, Tonali steps into a leadership role at the heart of midfield. If Italy are to rebuild confidence and rediscover their rhythm, Sandro Tonali must be the one to pull the strings and set the tone in Reggio Emilia.
Italy should have too much quality for Moldova, even in their current fragile state. With their backs against the wall and playing in front of a home crowd in Reggio Emilia, expect a more focused and aggressive Azzurri performance. The pressure may still linger, but this is a game they simply cannot afford to get wrong.
