Under Pep Guardiola, Manchester City have built a machine of precision and possession, hoisting six Premier League titles in seven years. Yet, as the 2025/26 season unfolds, a glaring vulnerability stares back: an overreliance on one man, Erling Haaland.
The Norwegian phenom has lit up the Premier League with 14 goals in just 11 matches, a scorching pace that evokes memories of his breakout 2022/23 campaign. But peel back the layers, and the stats paint a troubling picture; no other Manchester City player has notched more than a single Premier League goal this term.
This is not just a quirk; it is a crisis brewing. In a season packed with quadruple chasing ambitions, City’s fate hinges perilously on Haaland’s boots. Without diversification, trophies could slip through their fingers, leaving them trophyless for the first time in Guardiola’s reign.
Haaland’s form has been nothing short of spectacular. At 25, he has evolved from a raw powerhouse into a clinical finisher who terrorizes defenses. His 14 goals include important strikes against Arsenal and a brace in the Manchester derby that silenced doubters. He is not just scoring; he’s carrying City through lulls.
In their win over Liverpool last month, Haaland’s strike turned a stagnant affair into victory. Statistically, he is contributing to 60% of Manchester City’s league goals, a figure that rivals prime Messi or Ronaldo dependencies but lacks the supporting cast those legends enjoyed. Yet, the rest of the squad? Silent.
Bernardo Silva, the midfield maestro, has no goals. Phil Foden, Manchester City’s homegrown star, has one from open play. Omar Marmoush, meant to be Haaland’s understudy, sits at zero in the league. Even Jeremy Doku has scored just once. This is not balance; it is a house of cards.
The dangers of this overdependence are manifold, especially in a gruelling campaign across four fronts. Manchester City sit second in the Premier League, four points behind leaders Arsenal, with the UEFA Champions League group stages heating up. Haaland’s workload, projected at 50+ games, invites burnout or injury.
Remember his hamstring tweak last season that sidelined him for three weeks? A repeat could derail everything. Norway’s international breaks add fuel. History echoes this warning. Teams that lean too heavily on one striker rarely sustain glory.
Think Liverpool’s 2013/14 collapse under Luis Suarez’s brilliance, or Real Madrid’s pre-Ronaldo struggles without a Plan B. Manchester City are not invincible; their 2023/24 treble masked deeper issues, like a goals drought when Haaland was absent. This season, it has amplified.
If Haaland dips, even slightly, the title race could tilt toward Arsenal’s more distributed attack, where Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Viktor Gyokeres, and Kai Havertz can and probably will share the load. For Manchester City, overdependence is not a strategy; it is a gamble that could end in empty hands come May.
Diving deeper, tactical rigidity exacerbates the problem. Guardiola’s system funnels chances through Haaland’s aerial dominance and runs in behind. The squad’s scoring drought is stark. Doku, the fleet-footed Belgian winger, has one goal, but his role skews toward assists (three so far).
Tactically, Guardiola’s evolution amplifies the risk. His 2025/26 setup retains the 4-3-3 hallmark but adds quicker transitions, emphasising direct balls to exploit Haaland’s runs. Possession hovers at 62 per cent, but when opponents like Arsenal clog the centre, Manchester City’s sterile passing yields diminishing returns.
Wingers Doku and Savinho are funnelled outward, reducing their shooting volume; Foden drifts central but often drops deep to link play, forgoing box arrivals. The bench offers limited relief: Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, James Trafford as backup, and youth prospects like Rico Lewis provide solidity, but no proven goal threat. Injuries to John Stones and Nathan Ake have forced makeshift defences, further taxing the attack.
The multi-front schedule magnifies this vulnerability. Manchester City face six league games in 18 days over Christmas, plus potentially the UEFA Champions League round of 16 ties and domestic cups. Haaland’s projected 55+ matches invite fatigue. A recurrence of last season’s hamstring issue could sideline him for weeks, as seen in 2024/25 when City dropped points in his absence.
Yet, solutions exist in the coming weeks. Guardiola must tweak tactics immediately. Shift Foden to a No. 10 role behind Haaland, leveraging his vision for more arrival. Deploy Doku centrally in rotations, harnessing his dribbling for shots; his three assists show creative spark, but encourage end product.
Matheus Nunes and Nico Gonzalez, with their long-range prowess, need a license to shoot from midfield. Manchester City’s xG from distance has risen 20 per cent under Pep Guardiola’s direct tweaks. In training, emphasise collective drills: small-sided games forcing multiple finishers, reducing Haaland fixation.
The January transfer window offers reinforcements. Target a versatile forward for depth, fitting FFP after offloading peripherals like Kalvin Phillips, who is on the squad list but sidelined. Long-term, nurture youth: Lewis and Abdukodir Khusanov provide defensive balance, freeing attackers. Mentally, Guardiola’s retreats, echoing Barcelona’s successes, could foster unity.
By year-end, these steps could cement Manchester City as the front-runners. Diversify now, and the Premier League title plus UEFA Champions League glory beckon. Clinging to Haaland, and overdependence will cost dearly.
