Napoli begin the new year on the road, heading to the capital for a lunchtime clash with Lazio that promises to set the tone for the opening weeks of 2026. Momentum is firmly with the reigning champions. But history, and recent head-to-head trends, suggest this is rarely a straightforward assignment at the Stadio Olimpico.
Lazio enter the contest knowing that consistency, rather than brilliance, has kept them in the European conversation. The Biancocelesti closed out 2025 unbeaten, yet three draws from their final four league outings dulled the impact of that run. Frustration was particularly evident last weekend in Udine, where a late and controversial equaliser denied them what would have been a valuable away victory.
Their only league win since early December remains an extraordinary nine-man triumph in Parma, a result that underlined both their resilience and the fine margins that have shaped their campaign. Despite operating under a transfer embargo, Maurizio Sarri has fashioned a side built on discipline and defensive structure. Lazio’s home form reflects that identity clearly.
Clean sheets have been frequent at the Olimpico, with Ivan Provedel often called upon in decisive moments, and a narrow Coppa Italia win over AC Milan further reinforced their solidity on familiar ground. Still, the numbers against elite opposition tell a more sobering story. Lazio have struggled to impose themselves against top-half rivals, collecting minimal points from those fixtures and highlighting a gap they will need to bridge if they are to close the distance to Napoli.
The visitors arrive in Rome in a far more buoyant mood. Napoli ended 2025 in style, stringing together three consecutive league victories while also lifting the Supercoppa Italiana to add early silverware to their season. That confidence carried into a commanding win over Cremonese, where Rasmus Hojlund’s early brace set the platform for another controlled 2-0 success.
It was a timely response after a brief wobble that had seen defeats in both Serie A and the UEFA Champions League threaten to stall their momentum. Antonio Conte’s side, however, remain a work in progress away from home. Their away record has been uncharacteristically fragile, with defeats already matching the total from the previous 33 league trips combined.
For a team defending a Scudetto, that vulnerability cannot persist for long. Conte will be acutely aware that performances on the road may define Napoli’s title defence just as much as their dominant displays in Naples. There is also a tactical subplot on the touchline.
Conte has yet to defeat Sarri in competitive meetings, losing both previous encounters when the pair crossed paths at other clubs. Ending that sequence would carry symbolic weight, particularly in a fixture where Napoli have surprisingly failed to win any of their last five league meetings with Lazio, after dominating the matchup for years prior. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
Maurizio Sarri receives a timely boost in midfield as Matteo Guendouzi and Toma Basic return from suspension after missing the previous league outing. Their availability adds much-needed balance and energy to a unit that has been stretched in recent weeks. However, Lazio are still operating with notable absences across the squad.
Nicolo Rovella and Samuel Gigot remain sidelined through injury, while Fisayo Dele-Bashiru and Boulaye Dia are away on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations. In attack, the situation is further complicated by the expected departure of last season’s leading scorer Valenton Castellanos, who is reportedly closing in on a move to West Ham United.
With Castellanos unavailable, Sarri must once again reshape his forward line. Gustav Isaksen is a strong candidate to start on the right flank, particularly given his positive recent record against SSC Napoli, having scored in both of his last two appearances against the Partenopei. He is likely to be joined by Tijjani Noslin through the middle and club captain Mattia Zaccagni on the left, offering pace, direct running, and movement across the front line. Matteo Cancellieri remains an alternative option should Sarri opt for rotation or a different attacking profile.
From a tactical perspective, Lazio are expected to line up in Sarri’s familiar 4-3-3 formation, designed to prioritise structure, ball circulation, and compact defensive spacing. Ivan Provedel should continue between the posts, having played a decisive role in Lazio’s strong home defensive record this season. The back four is likely to feature Adam Marusic at right-back, Mario Gila and Alessio Romagnoli as the central defensive pairing, and Luca Pellegrini operating from left-back.
In midfield, the return of Guendouzi allows Sarri to restore a more balanced trio. Danilo Cataldi is expected to sit at the base as the regista, with Guendouzi providing intensity and ball progression on one side and Basic offering physical presence and late runs into the box on the other. Ahead of them, Isaksen, Noslin, and Zaccagni will form the attacking trident, tasked with pressing Napoli’s build-up while exploiting space in transition.
Probable Lineup (4-3-3): Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini; Guendouzi, Cataldi, Basic; Isaksen, Noslin, Zaccagni
Napoli arrive in Rome with several selection issues that continue to test Antonio Conte’s depth, particularly in attacking and defensive areas. Romelu Lukaku had recently returned after a lengthy spell on the sidelines, but the Belgian striker has suffered a fresh setback and is unavailable once again.
Midfield options are also reduced, with Kevin De Bruyne, Frank Anguissa, and Billy Gilmour all ruled out, while first-choice goalkeeper Alex Meret remains sidelined. At the back, there is uncertainty surrounding Sam Beukema and Mathias Olivera, both of whom are being assessed ahead of kickoff and may not be risked if not fully fit.
In contrast, Napoli can take encouragement from the form of Rasmus Hojlund, who continues to deliver in Lukaku’s absence. The Danish striker has scored nine goals in 20 appearances since joining on loan from Manchester United, including an impressive five goals from just ten shots on target during December. His efficiency and movement have been central to Napoli’s recent winning run, and he is expected to retain his place as the focal point of the attack.
From a tactical standpoint, Conte is expected to persist with his preferred 3-4-2-1 system, which has provided balance despite the injury list. Vanja Milinkovic-Savic should start in goal, shielded by a back three likely to include Giovanni Di Lorenzo on the right, Amir Rrahmani centrally, and Alessandro Buongiorno on the left. If Beukema is unavailable, Buongiorno’s role in organising the defensive line becomes even more significant.
The wing-back positions are set to be occupied by Matteo Politano on the right and Leonardo Spinazzola on the left, both tasked with stretching play and supporting transitions. In midfield, Stanislav Lobotka will anchor proceedings, with Scott McTominay expected to provide physicality and late runs into advanced areas. Ahead of them, David Neres and Eljif Elmas should operate between the lines, supporting Hojlund and offering creativity against Lazio’s compact defensive block.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Milinkovic-Savic; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno; Politano, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola; Neres, Elmas; Hojlund
With Napoli’s attacking options stretched by injury, Rasmus Hojlund has stepped into a defining role, and his influence could be decisive in Rome. The Danish striker has been Napoli’s most reliable source of goals in recent weeks, combining efficiency with intelligent movement that fits neatly into Antonio Conte’s system.
Hojlund’s greatest strength lies in his timing. He thrives on early service into the channels and quick combinations around the box, which makes him particularly dangerous against a Lazio side that prefers to defend in compact lines. His ability to peel away from centre-backs and attack space behind the full-backs could test Lazio’s defensive discipline, especially during transitions.
What also sets Hpjlund apart is his composure in front of goal. Converting five of his ten shots on target during December, he has shown a clinical edge that Napoli lacked earlier in the season. Beyond scoring, his pressing from the front and willingness to occupy defenders allows Napoli’s attacking midfielders to find space between the lines.
Against a well-organised Lazio defence, chances may be limited. If Napoli are to make the most of them, the Danish striker’s sharp movement and finishing could once again prove the difference.
This match-up sets up as a clash between Lazio’s defensive discipline at home and Napoli’s growing confidence as the reigning champions begin the new year. The Biancocelesti are well organised under Maurizio Sarri and rarely give much away at the Olimpico, but their difficulty in converting control into victories against top-half opponents remains a concern.
Napoli, despite their away-day inconsistencies, arrive with sharper attacking momentum and greater depth in key areas. If they can manage the game intelligently and avoid the lapses that have cost them on the road earlier in the season, their quality in the final third should make the difference. Expect a competitive, tightly fought contest, with Napoli edging it through efficiency rather than dominance.
