A potentially season-defining clash in the battle for Champions League qualification awaits at BayArena, as Bayer Leverkusen host Stuttgart in Bundesliga matchday 16. With only three points separating the two sides, this encounter could have a significant impact on how the top-four race shapes up heading into the second half of the campaign.
Leverkusen return from the winter break sitting third in the table with 29 points, buoyed by an impressive 3-1 victory over RB Leipzig in their final outing before the pause. However, their grip on a Champions League place remains fragile. Just four points separate them from seventh place, while Borussia Dortmund are only three points ahead in second, underlining how congested the upper reaches of the standings have become.
Compared to this stage last season, Leverkusen find themselves slightly behind the curve, having collected three fewer points while scoring four fewer goals, though they have shown marginal defensive improvement. Under Kasper Hjulmand, momentum has begun to build again, with Die Schwarzroten unbeaten in three matches and pushing for a third straight win.
Their attacking output has notably improved, scoring seven goals across those fixtures, although defensive consistency remains an issue, with just one clean sheet recorded in the last five league games. At home, though, Leverkusen have largely delivered, winning five of eight Bundesliga matches at BayArena.
Stuttgart, meanwhile, arrive in sixth place with 26 points, firmly in the mix for European qualification. A goalless draw with Hoffenheim closed out their pre-break schedule, extending a run of four winless games in five. While results have been mixed, Sebastian Hoeness’s side have shown signs of defensive solidity, keeping consecutive clean sheets, and their away form offers encouragement.
Stuttgart have won three of their last four league matches on the road and suffered just one defeat in their previous five away outings. History, however, is firmly stacked against the visitors. Die Schwaben have not beaten Leverkusen in the Bundesliga since April 2018, enduring nine defeats and six draws across their last 15 meetings.
Breaking that streak would not only be psychologically significant but could also propel Stuttgart directly into the heart of the Champions League conversation. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
Bayer Leverkusen head into this key fixture with notable absentees in attacking areas. Left winger Eliesse Ben Seghir, attacking midfielder Ibrahim Maza, and teenage striker Christian Kofane are all unavailable due to Africa Cup of Nations commitments, significantly reducing Kasper Hjulmand’s options in the final third.
There is also uncertainty surrounding Ernest Poku, with the right-sided forward rated as a doubt ahead of kickoff. In midfield, Exequiel Palacios is still recovering from a groin injury and is not expected to feature, meaning Leverkusen must once again rely on their depth and tactical flexibility to compensate for missing personnel.
From a structural standpoint, Leverkusen are expected to continue with a 3-4-2-1 system that offers balance between control and attacking support. Mark Flekken should start in goal, protected by a back three consisting of Jarrell Quansah on the right, Loic Bade as the central defender, and Jeanuel Belocian operating on the left.
The wing-back roles are likely to be filled by Arthur on the right and Alejandro Grimaldo on the left, both tasked with providing width and attacking thrust. In central midfield, Robert Andrich is expected to partner Aleix Garcia, combining defensive discipline with progressive passing. Ahead of them, Jonas Hofmann and Malik Tillman should operate as the two attacking midfielders, supporting lone striker Patrik Schick, who will lead the line and serve as Leverkusen’s primary goal threat at BayArena.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Flekken; Quansah, Bade, Belocian; Arthur, Andrich, Garcia, Grimaldo; Hofmann, Tillman; Schick
Stuttgart travel to BayArena with significant availability concerns, particularly in defensive areas. Centre-backs Dan-Axel Zagadou, Finn Jeltsch, and Luca Jaquez are all sidelined through injury, while fellow central defender Ameen Al Dakhil remains a doubt after missing training due to illness.
Higher up the pitch, Sebastian Hoeness is also without creative options, as loan signing Bilal El Khannouss is away at the Africa Cup of Nations, Noah Darvich is recovering from a muscle injury, Lazar Jovanovic is struggling with a back problem, and striker Jovan Milosevic is unavailable after suffering a broken hand. These absences leave Stuttgart stretched across multiple lines, forcing Hoeness to reshuffle both defence and attack.
Tactically, Stuttgart are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, prioritising structure and compactness. Alexander Nubel should start in goal, with a back four comprising Josha Vagnoman at right-back, Ramon Hendriks partnering Jeff Chabot at the heart of the defence, and Maximilian Mittelstadt operating at left-back.
In midfield, Atakan Karazor is likely to sit deepest alongside Angelo Stiller, forming a double pivot tasked with shielding the back line and recycling possession. Ahead of them, Tiago Tomas is expected to operate from the right flank, Jamie Leweling from the left, and Nikolas Nartey in the central attacking midfield role. Leading the line will be Deniz Undav, who remains Stuttgart’s primary attacking outlet and focal point in the final third.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Nubel; Vagnoman, Hendriks, Chabot, Mittelstadt; Karazor, Stiller; Tomas, Nartey, Leweling; Undav
With Bayer Leverkusen missing several attacking options due to injuries and international duty, Patrik Schick is set to shoulder much of the responsibility in the final third. Leading the line in Hjulmand’s 3-4-2-1 system, the Czech striker remains Leverkusen’s most reliable penalty-box presence, combining sharp movement with clinical finishing.
Schick’s ability to occupy centre-backs, bring attacking midfielders into play and convert half-chances could be decisive against a Stuttgart defence already stretched by multiple absences. If Leverkusen are to assert control in a match of this magnitude, they will look to Schick not only for goals, but also to anchor their attacking structure and punish any lapses in Stuttgart’s reshuffled back line.
With home advantage, greater attacking continuity and Stuttgart arriving with a depleted defence, Bayer Leverkusen appear better placed to edge a tight contest at BayArena. Stuttgart’s away form suggests they will be competitive, but the hosts’ firepower and control in midfield should prove decisive over 90 minutes.
