AC Milan head to Florence to take on Fiorentina on Sunday knowing there is little margin for error if they are to remain firmly in the Scudetto race. A frustrating midweek draw against Genoa slowed their momentum, allowing city rivals Inter Milan to stretch their lead at the summit, while Fiorentina’s continued struggle near the foot of the table has made every fixture feel like a must-win for the Viola.
Fiorentina have reached the midpoint of the campaign entrenched in the relegation zone, second from bottom with just 13 points to show for their efforts. On paper, it has been a disastrous season, yet recent performances hint at a side that may finally be turning a corner.
Paolo Vanoli’s men have collected seven points from their last four league matches, more than they managed across the opening 15 games combined, and they came agonisingly close to a third win in four outings on Wednesday night.
At Stadio Olimpico, Fiorentina showed resilience and attacking intent to overturn an early deficit against Lazio. Robin Gosens sparked the comeback before Albert Gudmundsson calmly dispatched yet another penalty, continuing a remarkable personal record from the spot.
However, familiar problems resurfaced late on, as a stoppage-time equaliser condemned the Viola to another damaging draw. That result typified their season, with Fiorentina now having dropped 18 points from winning positions, the worst record in Serie A. Despite their precarious standing, there is reason for cautious optimism in Tuscany.
Fiorentina have enjoyed recent success against AC Milan at the Artemio Franchi, winning three of the last four home meetings, and victory this weekend could lift them out of the bottom three for the first time in months. With reinforcements expected during the January transfer window, belief is slowly returning that survival remains achievable.
Milan, by contrast, arrive with title ambitions still intact, even if their grip on the race loosened slightly in midweek. A late equaliser from Rafael Leao rescued a point against Genoa, preserving the Rossoneri’s lengthy unbeaten league run but denying them the chance to close the gap on Inter.
There was still late drama at San Siro, as Genoa missed a stoppage-time penalty, underlining how fine the margins have become in a tightly contested title battle. Under Massimiliano Allegri, Milan have been extraordinarily difficult to beat.
Their only league defeat came on the opening weekend, and they remain the sole Serie A side yet to lose away from home this season, recording five wins and three draws on their travels. That resilience has kept them ahead of Napoli, Juventus, and AS Roma, even if they currently trail Inter at the top.
Milan also carry positive memories from the reverse fixture, having beaten Fiorentina at San Siro earlier in the campaign, with Leao scoring twice. The Portuguese forward has once again proven decisive in key moments, and his ability to deliver under pressure continues to define Milan’s title push.
Fiorentina are scrapping for survival and searching for validation that their recent improvement is sustainable, while Milan are chasing consistency and ruthlessness to remain in the Scudetto conversation. History in Florence offers the hosts encouragement, but Milan’s away form suggests they will be hard to derail. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
Fiorentina continue to juggle several fitness concerns as they prepare to host AC Milan. Long-term absentee Tariq Lamptey remains sidelined, while veteran striker Edin Dzeko could miss out once again amid uncertainty over his future, with an expected departure later this month. There is more positive news in midfield, however, as Jacopo Fazzini is set to return to action, boosting Paolo Vanoli’s options in central areas.
Fiorentina have also added depth with the recent signing of Marco Brescianini from Atalanta, bringing further energy and ball-carrying ability to the midfield unit. Up front, Moise Kean continues to struggle with a reported ankle issue, meaning his availability and sharpness remain in doubt.
From a tactical perspective, Fiorentina are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation against AC Milan, reflecting the structure that has underpinned their recent improvement. David de Gea should start in goal, shielded by a back four consisting of Dodo at right-back, Pietro Comuzzo and Marin Pongracic in central defence, and Robin Gosens operating from the left.
In midfield, Rolando Mandragora is likely to partner Nicolo Fagioli in the double pivot, tasked with balancing defensive cover and ball progression. Ahead of them, Fabiano Parisi is expected to continue in an advanced role on the right flank, with new signing Marco Brescianini operating centrally and Albert Gudmundsson providing creativity from the left.
With Dzeko likely absent and Kean not fully fit, Roberto Piccoli may again be asked to lead the line, though Vanoli also has the option of introducing Manor Solomon, who is pushing strongly for inclusion in the attacking line.
Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): de Gea; Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Gosens; Mandragora, Fagioli; Parisi, Brescianini, Gudmundsson; Kean
AC Milan head to Florence with a key defensive absence, as Fikayo Tomori is suspended, forcing Massimiliano Allegri into a reshuffle at the back. With Tomori unavailable, Koni De Winter is expected to slot into the defensive unit alongside Matteo Gabbia and Strahinja Pavlovic, maintaining the three-man structure Massimiliano Allegri has favoured in recent weeks.
In attack, Milan remain short of options: Santiago Gimenez is still sidelined through injury, Niclas Fullkrug is short of match fitness following his recent arrival, and Christopher Nkunku continues to be hampered by an ankle problem. As a result, Christian Pulisic is the leading candidate to partner Rafael Leao up front.
From a tactical standpoint, Milan are expected to line up in a 3-5-2 formation that prioritises control through midfield and vertical transitions. Mike Maignan should start in goal, protected by a back three of Koni De Winter on the right, Matteo Gabbia centrally, and Strahinja Pavlovic on the left.
The wing-back roles are likely to be filled by Alexis Saelemaekers on the right and Davide Bartesaghi on the left, offering width and support in both phases. In central midfield, Ruben Loftus-Cheek is expected to provide physicality alongside Luka Modric, whose composure and distribution remain central to Milan’s build-up play, while Adrien Rabiot adds balance and late runs into the box.
Ahead of them, Christian Pulisic should operate close to Rafael Leao, with the Portuguese forward arriving in strong form and boasting an impressive record against Fiorentina, having scored six Serie A goals against the Viola across his career.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Maignan; De Winter, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Leao
With AC Milan short of fit striking options, Christian Pulisic is set to take on added responsibility in the attacking line. Deployed alongside Rafael Leao in a fluid front two, the American attacker’s intelligence off the ball and ability to arrive in dangerous areas could be vital against a Fiorentina side that has struggled to protect leads this season.
Pulisic’s movement between the lines complements Leao’s direct running, and his sharp finishing from central areas gives Milan an alternative goal threat when space out wide is limited. In a match where fine margins may decide the outcome, Pulisic’s knack for timely contributions in big moments could prove decisive at the Stadio Franchi.
Fiorentina’s recent improvement suggests they will make this a competitive contest, especially with the backing of the home crowd. However, Milan’s resilience, superior squad depth and outstanding away record should ultimately tilt the balance in their favour, even if it takes patience to break the Viola down.
