AC Milan return to San Siro to take on Genoa on Thursday night knowing that consistency, rather than spectacle, may ultimately decide the Scudetto race. With Napoli and Inter Milan also locked in a three-way battle at the summit, the Rossoneri can ill afford any slip-ups as they host a Genoa side still fighting to pull clear of relegation trouble.
Since an opening-day setback against newly promoted Cremonese, Milan have been relentlessly difficult to beat. A 16-match unbeaten run in Serie A, featuring 11 victories, has kept Massimiliano Allegri’s side firmly in contention and brought them within touching distance of the club’s best unbeaten league sequence of the century. Defensive discipline has been the cornerstone of that run, with Milan showing a growing ability to manage tight games rather than overwhelm opponents.
That trait was evident in their first outing of 2026. Following a post-Christmas win over Hellas Verona, Milan edged past Cagliari in a subdued contest, decided by a second-half strike from Rafael Leao. The victory briefly lifted them above Inter at the top of the table, underlining how fine the margins have become in a title race that looks set to stretch deep into the spring. San Siro has once again become a reliable platform.
Milan have won three of their last four home league games, keeping a clean sheet in each of those victories, and that defensive solidity should give them confidence against a Genoa side struggling for momentum. Although the Grifone have drawn on their last two visits to face Milan, the broader historical picture is far less encouraging: they have managed just one win in the last 15 league meetings between the sides.
Genoa’s wider record in the city offers little comfort either. When facing Milanese opposition, they have lost 14 of their last 18 league trips to San Siro, a statistic that reflects how challenging these fixtures have been over the years. Form heading into this match only heightens the difficulty.
Daniele De Rossi’s men have collected just one point from their last four league outings, and the optimism that initially accompanied his appointment has faded. Genoa opened the new year with a draw against Pisa, but even that result felt underwhelming. An early goal from Lorenzo Colombo was cancelled out before the break, and the point did little to ease concerns as they remain entrenched near the bottom of the table.
With relegation fears growing and confidence fragile, Genoa face a daunting task against an AC Milan side built on control, patience, and defensive assurance. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
AC Milan approach Thursday’s fixture with a largely settled squad, a reflection of Massimiliano Allegri’s preference for continuity. No coach across Europe’s top five leagues has made fewer substitutions this season, with Allegri consistently leaning on a trusted core led by captain Mike Maignan and veteran midfielder Luka Modric.
That stability has underpinned Milan’s long unbeaten run, though the midweek schedule may prompt selective rotation. There is positive news in attack and defence, as Matteo Gabbia is expected to return to the starting lineup after being rested recently, while Christian Pulisic should also come back into the XI.
The American was benched last weekend due to a minor muscular issue, but his importance is clear: he averages a Serie A goal every 76 minutes this season. He is likely to be paired with Rafael Leao, whose scoring rate of one goal every 121 minutes still makes him Milan’s primary threat in open play.
Milan’s forward options remain restricted, however. Niclas Fullkrug, a recent arrival, is still building match fitness, Santiago Gimenez remains sidelined through injury, and Christopher Nkunku continues to struggle with an ankle problem. As a result, Allegri is expected to rely once more on the Pulisic–Leao partnership to lead the line.
From a tactical perspective, Milan are set to line up in a 3-5-2 formation, prioritising control in midfield and defensive security while allowing attacking freedom to the front two. Mike Maignan should start in goal, behind a back three of Fikayo Tomori on the right, Matteo Gabbia centrally, and Strahinja Pavlovic on the left.
The wing-back roles are likely to be filled by Alexis Saelemaekers on the right and Davide Bartesaghi on the left, both expected to provide width and support transitions. In central midfield, Youssouf Fofana offers balance and ball recovery, alongside Luka Modric, who dictates tempo, and Adrien Rabiot, whose physical presence and late runs add another dimension. Up front, Pulisic and Leao should operate as a complementary strike pairing, combining movement, pace, and finishing.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Leao
Genoa travel to San Siro still dealing with several absentees, particularly in midfield and wide areas, which continue to limit Daniele De Rossi’s options. Jean Onana remains away on international duty with Cameroon at the Africa Cup of Nations, while Albert Gronbaek, Benjamin Siegrist, Maxwel Cornet, and Junior Messias are all sidelined through injury.
In defence, there is some uncertainty surrounding Sebastian Otoa, who picked up a knock against Pisa and subsequently missed training, opening the door for Alessandro Marcandalli to return to the starting lineup. In attack, Genoa are expected to lean on a familiar figure.
Lorenzo Colombo, on loan from AC Milan, should lead the line against his parent club. The striker already has experience of scoring against Milan in Serie A, having done so while playing for Monza, and will be keen to make an impact once again. His movement and ability to press from the front remain key components of Genoa’s attacking approach.
Tactically, Genoa are likely to adopt a 3-5-2 formation against AC Milan, aiming to remain compact and disciplined while looking to exploit moments on the counter. Nicola Leali should start in goal, protected by a back three comprising Alessandro Marcandalli on the right, Leo Ostigard centrally, and captain Johan Vasquez on the left. This defensive unit will be tasked with staying organised against Milan’s mobile front two.
The wing-back roles are expected to be filled by Brooke Norton-Cuffy on the right and Aaron Martin on the left, providing width and defensive cover. In central midfield, Ruslan Malinovskyi should act as the creative hub, supported by the energy and ball-winning of Morten Frendrup and Morten Thorsby, as Genoa look to disrupt Milan’s rhythm. Up front, Vitinha is likely to partner Lorenzo Colombo, with the former dropping deeper to link play and the latter focusing on occupying Milan’s centre-backs.
Probable Lineup (3-5-2): Leali; Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vazquez; Norton-Cuffy, Malinovskyi, Frendrup, Thorsby, Martin; Vitinha, Colombo
In matches where margins are tight and patience is required, Rafael Leao remains AC Milan’s most decisive attacking weapon. The Portuguese forward brings a blend of pace, power, and improvisation that few defenders in Serie A can consistently handle, particularly in one-on-one situations.
Leao thrives when Milan control territory and gradually stretch the opposition, which suits this fixture perfectly. Genoa are likely to defend deep and narrow, and Leao’s ability to isolate defenders on the flank or drift inside to attack space can quickly tilt the balance. His acceleration over short distances makes him dangerous even when chances appear limited, while his growing composure in front of goal has added efficiency to his natural flair.
Beyond scoring, Leao’s presence shapes Milan’s entire attacking structure. Defenders are often forced to double up, opening lanes for midfield runners and strike partners like Christian Pulisic. Against a Genoa side struggling for confidence and depth at the back, Leao’s ability to turn moments into momentum could prove decisive. If Milan are to turn control into a comfortable victory, Leao is the player most likely to provide the breakthrough.
Genoa may look to keep this tight through organisation and numbers behind the ball, but the contrast in form, confidence, and squad depth is stark. AC Milan have shown an ability to manage games without overextending themselves, and their defensive control at San Siro has been a key feature of their title push.
If the Rossoneri maintain patience and avoid early frustration, the quality of their forward pair, particularly Rafael Leao, should eventually tell. Genoa’s recent struggles in front of goal make it difficult to see them sustaining pressure for long spells.
