Fiorentina’s quest to get out of Serie A’s relegation zone faces a formidable challenge on Sunday as they entertain title-bidding Milan at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Both teams are desperate to take all three points, albeit for contrasting reasons.
Despite entering the season as perennial European contenders, Fiorentina could be facing a season-long fight against the drop. Only two wins from the opening 19 matches keep La Viola firmly embroiled in the relegation scrap, with Paolo Vanoli’s side sitting three points adrift of 17th-placed Genoa (D7, L10).
However, Fiorentina can draw confidence from the fact that the Griffins held Milan to a scoreless draw in midweek Serie A action. Meanwhile, the Tuscan club overturned a second-half deficit against Lazio on Wednesday, only to concede a 95th-minute equalizer in a pulsating 2-2 draw at the Olimpico.
Speaking of drama, Milan found a late equalizer against Genoa at the San Siro, yet they were lucky to get away with a point as Nicola Stanicu squandered a last-minute penalty. Despite extending their unbeaten Serie A streak to 17 matches (W11, D6), Massimiliano Allegri’s men trail table-topping Inter by three points ahead of the kick-off.
With the Nerazzurri taking on reigning holders Napoli later tonight, this feels like a prime opportunity for Milan to close the gap on their bitter rivals. Yet, they cannot take anything for granted, given their disappointing recent record at the Franchi.
Fiorentina
La Viola emerged victorious from three of their last four league meetings with Milan on home turf (L1), with two of those triumphs coming by an identical 2-1 scoreline. However, the hosts have only won once in their last five clashes against this opposition at any venue (D1, L3), highlighting the magnitude of the task awaiting Vanoli’s side.
Against this backdrop, Fiorentina’s recent form can inspire confidence among the home faithful. They’ve only lost one of their last four Serie A outings (W2, D1), with both victories in that sequence coming at home. Still, mid-table Udinese and Cremonese are hardly comparable to the might of Milan, who remain the only unbeaten team on the road this season (W5, D3).
Despite Fiorentina’s underwhelming campaign, they’ve only failed to score once across nine home league games all season (W2, D2, L5). With that in mind, it takes no rocket science to comprehend the depth of their defensive issues. Indeed, Vanoli’s charges have just one home clean sheet to their name this term.
Milan
Allegri’s men have developed a nasty habit of dropping points against bottom-half sides. For context, five of their seven winless league fixtures this season have come against teams currently residing in Serie A’s lower reaches. If it’s any comfort, four of those five encounters were at the San Siro.
By contrast, Milan have racked up three consecutive league victories away from home. With each win yielding a narrow one-goal margin, it’s reasonable to expect another hard-fought contest at the Frachi, where a maximum of one goal separated the sides at the final whistle across their last nine top-flight showdowns.
Milan can always rely on their traditionally fast starts on the road. They have opened the scoring in six of their eight away league games this season, going on to win four of them (D2). However, one goal may not be enough for all three points here, as their last six away matches against Fiorentina saw both teams on the scoresheet.
In addition to long-term absentee Tariq Lamptey, Fiorentina will be without the exit-bound Edin Dzeko and Morocco international Amir Richardson. Meanwhile, January signing Marco Brescianini could make his first start for the club, while Tottenham Hotspur loanee Manor Solomon is likely to get his first minutes off the bench.
On the other hand, starting center-back Fikayo Tomori serves a yellow-card ban, with Koni De Winter expected to slot in alongside Strahinja Pavlovic and Matteo Gabbia at the back. Santiago Gimenez remains in the pits, meaning Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao will likely partner up in the final third.
Fiorentina (4-2-3-1): De Gea; Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Gosens; Mandragora, Fagioli; Parisi, Brescianini, Gudmundsson; Kean.
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan; De Winter, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Leao.
Milan are probably not among the most enjoyable teams to watch, but they know how to get the job done. Allegri has transformed this side into a ruthless, results-driven unit, and against a Fiorentina team marooned in the relegation zone, that pragmatism should again come to the fore. La Viola won’t go down without a fight, but the Rossoneri should grind out another narrow victory.
Prediction: Milan to Win
