Sunderland will be eager to return to winning ways and kick off their UEFA Europa League campaign with a bang when they host AZ Alkmaar at the Stadium of Light on Wednesday.
Sunderland’s return to European competition begins after a 2-0 home defeat by Arsenal, a result shaped by an early concession and a red card before the break. That setback does not erase the significance of a first European appearance in 53 years, but it does sharpen the question for this Europa League opener: can Sunderland keep the occasion controlled against an AZ Alkmaar side arriving with the better recent momentum?
The result carries major narrative weight for Sunderland, but neither side has a result-outcome calculation forcing an all-or-nothing approach. Sunderland need to turn the occasion into a competitive performance rather than an open chase. AZ, meanwhile, can pursue the win while protecting the unbeaten run that has established them as the more settled team.
For Sunderland, victory would give their European return the start the club wants, while a defeat would leave the occasion attached to another difficult result after the Arsenal loss. Their recent sequence is one win, one draw and two defeats, yet confidence in the direction of the team remains intact. The Arsenal match showed that the home side can be tested before it has had time to settle, and the absence of several squad members could make the manager cautious about how much risk he takes.
AZ have more to protect in performance terms than in tournament mathematics. They arrive after four wins and a draw in their listed run, with a settled managerial picture and a clear tactical reference point. Their strong domestic start gives them a platform Sunderland do not currently possess, although the long-standing difficulty AZ have experienced in England means this is not a routine away assignment. Their attacking confidence should encourage them to press the match forward, but the draw remains a viable outcome if Sunderland refuse to open the game.
Sunderland will be without Alan Browne and Aji Alese, who were omitted from the Europa League squad. Romaine Mundle and Habib Diarra are also out with knee and hamstring injuries respectively, while Dayann Méthalie is suspended. Those absences reduce the alternatives around a side expected to retain its established double-pivot structure. Robin Roefs should start in goal, with Reinildo Mandava and Dan Ballard on the left of the defence, Kevin Danso expected to take the other centre-back position and Thomas Meunier likely to continue at right-back.
Mandava and Ballard are selections Sunderland will want to keep stable behind the ball. Both have been described as being in strong recent form, but neither has made an appearance this season according to the available squad record. That makes the predicted back four a significant call despite the confidence behind the selection. In midfield, Noah Sadiki should join Granit Xhaka in the two-man base, with Xhaka providing the more secure presence on the right side of the pair.
The attacking four should be built around Enzo Le Fée behind Brian Brobbey, with Nilson Angulo on the left and Trai Hume on the right. Le Fée is the expected penalty taker and remains the clearest central creator in the selection, although he too has not appeared this season. Hume is the player Sunderland lean on most heavily in the attacking midfield line; his work on the right must connect with Meunier without leaving the full-back isolated. Brobbey gives the side a fixed central reference rather than another player drifting away from the box.
Probable Sunderland Lineup (4-2-3-1): Roefs; Meunier, Danso, Ballard, Reinildo; Xhaka, Sadiki; Hume, Le Fee, Angulo; Brobbey
Probable AZ Alkmaar Lineup (4-2-3-1): De Busser; de Wit, Goes, Schouten, Chavez; Koopmeiners, Kwakman; Patati, Stengs, Daal; Meerdink
AZ are expected to use the same 4-2-3-1 that has served as their regular structure. Jordy Clasie is returning from knee problems, but Denso Kasius and Stije Resink are out, as is Kees Smit with a groin injury. Hobie Verhulst is unavailable because he is not eligible, while Valdemar Byskov and Elijah Dijkstra remain doubtful with ankle and leg problems. The most consequential selection uncertainty is in the defensive wide area: Mees de Wit is an open call at right-back, even though his established profile is on the other side.
Jari De Busser should hold the goalkeeping position behind Mateo Chávez, Lewis Schouten, Wouter Goes and the likely de Wit selection. Goes and Schouten give AZ a centre-back pairing that the staff have treated as settled, while Peer Koopmeiners should anchor the midfield alongside Dave Kwakman. Kwakman’s place is less secure, but the selection pool points to him filling the left side of the pivot.
Calvin Stengs is expected to operate behind Mexx Meerdink, with Weslley Patati on the right and Ro-Zangelo Daal on the left. Daal is the main attacking focal point in this predicted XI and has been improving, strong form. Meerdink is a more delicate call: he is the likely central striker, but his recent output has not been convincing. Daal has made no appearance this season either, so the expectation is that AZ will ask an untested attacking group to reproduce the fluency of the team’s recent results.
Both teams should line up in a 4-2-3-1, with two holding midfielders protecting the back four and one central attacker working behind the striker. Sunderland’s version is designed to keep enough cover behind the ball while still allowing the wide players and Le Fée to support Brobbey. At home, they should try to win, but not by abandoning the structure that has been used repeatedly in recent matches.
AZ have the same basic arrangement, yet their recent attacking production gives the shape a different feel. The double pivot can release Stengs while the wide players stretch Sunderland’s back four, and Daal is the clearest route toward making the home side defend wider than it would prefer. AZ should be prepared to take the win if it presents itself, but they do not need to turn every attack into a gamble.
The centre will decide whether Sunderland can maintain that controlled approach. Xhaka and Sadiki need to stay close enough to the defenders to prevent Stengs from receiving freely between the lines, while Le Fée has to offer Sunderland a route out when AZ push their full-backs forward. If Sunderland are forced to chase the game, the double pivot can become disconnected from the front four and the match will move away from the compact contest they want.
The most important duel is on Sunderland’s right. Meunier has to contain Daal while still providing enough support for Hume, and Daal’s improving form gives AZ a natural way to pull Sunderland’s defensive block apart. If Meunier handles the threat, Sunderland can retain their back four and keep the game inside their measured approach. If Daal repeatedly wins that contest, Sunderland will have to open the right side of their structure, leaving more space for Stengs and Meerdink to attack.
There is a second layer behind that duel. Hume is Sunderland’s main right-sided attacking outlet, so the home side cannot simply leave him deep beside Meunier. The decision to support Hume or protect the full-back will determine whether Sunderland can threaten AZ without exposing the channel Daal wants to enter. In the middle, Xhaka’s screening of Stengs offers Sunderland another route to stability; if Stengs finds regular room, the home side will be defending AZ’s front four rather than controlling the match from its intended shape.
We are predicting a win for AZ Alkmaar, albeit with medium confidence rather than certainty. AZ have produced the stronger recent attacking baseline, averaging 2.76 expected goals for per match across their last five compared with Sunderland’s 1.55 across their last four. That gap matters because Sunderland’s best route is to keep the game compact, while AZ have more evidence of being able to create enough pressure to force the home side into an open chase.
The recent results point in the same direction. AZ’s four wins and one draw contrast with Sunderland’s one win, one draw and two defeats, and the away side’s established 4-2-3-1 should be better equipped to keep its attacking players connected when the match becomes stretched. Daal’s duel with Meunier is the clearest individual route to that advantage, but the broader issue is whether Sunderland can keep both holding midfielders connected to the defence for long enough.
The strongest case against the away win is Sunderland’s ability to turn the occasion into an organised home performance. If Meunier survives the first pressure from Daal and Xhaka prevents Stengs from receiving in central space, Sunderland can keep the match narrow and make AZ work through a crowded penalty area. Brobbey would then have a chance to bring Angulo, Hume and Le Fée into the game, while AZ’s unsettled right-back decision could give Sunderland an attacking target of their own. The likely scoreline range is 1-2, 0-2 or 1-3.
The remaining uncertainty is AZ’s right-back selection. If that player can hold his position and support the defence without allowing Angulo and Hume to attack the same side repeatedly, AZ should have enough structure to sustain their pressure. If Sunderland can isolate that area early, the European occasion may become more than atmosphere: it could give the home side the territorial foothold needed to make the predicted away control much less comfortable.
